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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Middlesbrough

T T S T S

2–0

Full-time

Bolton

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

This season — Championship · 22/23 matches

Win Ø 31%

45%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

50%

52%

Both score Ø 49%

45%

52%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 22

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 10. · Bolton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	24	17	4	3	+26	55
2	Cardiff	23	14	5	4	+15	47
3	Bristol City	23	12	8	3	+13	44
4	Derby	22	13	4	5	+17	43
5	Leeds	23	12	3	8	+9	39
6	Sheffield United	23	12	2	9	+7	38
7	Preston	23	9	9	5	+4	36
8	Ipswich	23	11	2	10	+4	35
9	Aston Villa	21	9	7	5	+8	34
10	Middlesbrough	22	10	4	8	+7	34
11	Brentford	23	7	10	6	+4	31
12	Fulham	21	8	7	6	+1	31
13	Nott'm Forest	23	10	1	12	-5	31
14	Reading	23	7	6	10	-1	27
15	Millwall	24	6	9	9	-1	27
16	Sheffield Weds	23	6	9	8	-2	27
17	Norwich	23	7	6	10	-8	27
18	QPR	23	6	8	9	-8	26
19	Hull	23	5	7	11	-4	22
20	Barnsley	23	5	6	12	-11	21
21	Burton Albion	23	5	5	13	-25	20
22	Sunderland	23	3	10	10	-11	19
23	Bolton	23	4	7	12	-18	19
24	Birmingham	23	4	5	14	-21	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Cardiff	11	8	3	0	+15	27
3	Derby	12	8	1	3	+13	25
4	Ipswich	11	7	1	3	+10	22
5	Sheffield United	11	7	1	3	+8	22
6	Leeds	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Millwall	12	6	3	3	+7	21
8	Bristol City	11	6	3	2	+6	21
9	Nott'm Forest	11	7	0	4	+4	21
10	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+4	20
11	Preston	12	5	5	2	+4	20
12	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+6	19
13	QPR	12	5	4	3	+2	19
14	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+3	17
15	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	17
16	Brentford	11	3	7	1	+4	16
17	Hull	11	4	2	5	+7	14
18	Norwich	12	3	5	4	-1	14
19	Bolton	12	4	2	6	-4	14
20	Birmingham	11	4	2	5	-4	14
21	Reading	12	3	4	5	-1	13
22	Barnsley	11	3	2	6	-5	11
23	Sunderland	12	1	5	6	-7	8
24	Burton Albion	11	2	1	8	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	12	8	2	2	+11	26
2	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+7	23
3	Cardiff	12	6	2	4	+0	20
4	Derby	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Leeds	11	6	0	5	+1	18
6	Preston	11	4	4	3	+0	16
7	Sheffield United	12	5	1	6	-1	16
8	Aston Villa	11	4	3	4	+2	15
9	Brentford	12	4	3	5	+0	15
10	Middlesbrough	11	4	2	5	+3	14
11	Fulham	10	4	2	4	+0	14
12	Reading	11	4	2	5	+0	14
13	Ipswich	12	4	1	7	-6	13
14	Norwich	11	4	1	6	-7	13
15	Burton Albion	12	3	4	5	-10	13
16	Sunderland	11	2	5	4	-4	11
17	Sheffield Weds	11	2	4	5	-5	10
18	Barnsley	12	2	4	6	-6	10
19	Nott'm Forest	12	3	1	8	-9	10
20	Hull	12	1	5	6	-11	8
21	QPR	11	1	4	6	-10	7
22	Millwall	12	0	6	6	-8	6
23	Bolton	11	0	5	6	-14	5
24	Birmingham	12	0	3	9	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.