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Championship

Referee: Tony Harrington

Derby

U S U T T

2–1

Full-time

Wigan

S U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Wigan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,5

1,8

Scored

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

This season — Championship · 31/34 matches

Win Ø 36%

45%

26%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

45%

47%

Both score Ø 51%

61%

41%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

17 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Wigan 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	35	20	9	6	+26	69
2	Sheffield United	35	19	8	8	+25	65
3	Leeds	33	18	7	8	+16	61
4	Middlesbrough	34	15	13	6	+14	58
5	West Brom	33	16	8	9	+18	56
6	Bristol City	34	15	9	10	+8	54
7	Derby	31	14	9	8	+10	51
8	Birmingham	35	12	14	9	+8	50
9	Nott'm Forest	35	12	14	9	+7	50
10	Hull	35	14	8	13	+2	50
11	Preston	35	12	12	11	+5	48
12	Sheffield Weds	35	12	12	11	-7	48
13	Swansea	34	13	8	13	+3	47
14	Brentford	34	12	10	12	+12	46
15	Aston Villa	32	10	14	8	+6	44
16	Stoke	35	10	14	11	-5	44
17	Blackburn	35	11	11	13	-8	44
18	QPR	35	12	6	17	-13	42
19	Wigan	34	9	9	16	-14	36
20	Millwall	35	8	10	17	-15	34
21	Reading	35	7	12	16	-14	33
22	Rotherham	35	6	15	14	-19	33
23	Bolton	35	6	8	21	-33	26
24	Ipswich	35	3	12	20	-32	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	18	11	3	4	+21	36
2	Sheffield United	17	11	3	3	+18	36
3	Leeds	17	11	3	3	+15	36
4	Norwich	17	11	2	4	+10	35
5	Hull	18	9	4	5	+13	31
6	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+8	31
7	Wigan	18	8	6	4	+3	30
8	Derby	15	8	5	2	+9	29
9	Sheffield Weds	18	7	8	3	+3	29
10	Swansea	17	8	4	5	+6	28
11	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+2	28
12	Preston	18	6	9	3	+9	27
13	Middlesbrough	16	7	6	3	+7	27
14	Blackburn	17	7	6	4	+6	27
15	West Brom	16	7	5	4	+13	26
16	Birmingham	17	6	8	3	+9	26
17	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
18	Bristol City	17	7	5	5	+4	26
19	QPR	17	8	2	7	+2	26
20	Rotherham	18	6	8	4	-2	26
21	Millwall	18	6	6	6	-2	24
22	Reading	17	5	4	8	-2	19
23	Ipswich	18	2	9	7	-7	15
24	Bolton	17	3	4	10	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	18	9	7	2	+16	34
2	Middlesbrough	18	8	7	3	+7	31
3	West Brom	17	9	3	5	+5	30
4	Sheffield United	18	8	5	5	+7	29
5	Bristol City	17	8	4	5	+4	28
6	Leeds	16	7	4	5	+1	25
7	Birmingham	18	6	6	6	-1	24
8	Derby	16	6	4	6	+1	22
9	Preston	17	6	3	8	-4	21
10	Nott'm Forest	18	3	10	5	-1	19
11	Swansea	17	5	4	8	-3	19
12	Sheffield Weds	17	5	4	8	-10	19
13	Hull	17	5	4	8	-11	19
14	Aston Villa	16	4	6	6	-1	18
15	Blackburn	18	4	5	9	-14	17
16	Stoke	17	2	10	5	-7	16
17	QPR	18	4	4	10	-15	16
18	Reading	18	2	8	8	-12	14
19	Bolton	18	3	4	11	-18	13
20	Brentford	16	1	7	8	-9	10
21	Millwall	17	2	4	11	-13	10
22	Rotherham	17	0	7	10	-17	7
23	Wigan	16	1	3	12	-17	6
24	Ipswich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.