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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Derby

U S U S U

0–1

Full-time

Millwall

T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Championship · 29/31 matches

Win Ø 36%

48%

23%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

48%

45%

Both score Ø 61%

66%

55%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

13 Shots 4

1 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Millwall 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	33	18	9	6	+23	63
2	Sheffield United	33	18	7	8	+24	61
3	West Brom	31	16	8	7	+23	56
4	Leeds	30	16	7	7	+12	55
5	Middlesbrough	32	14	12	6	+12	54
6	Bristol City	31	15	8	8	+10	53
7	Derby	29	14	9	6	+12	51
8	Nott'm Forest	33	11	14	8	+8	47
9	Birmingham	32	11	13	8	+9	46
10	Preston	33	11	11	11	+3	44
11	Hull	32	12	8	12	+3	44
12	Swansea	32	12	8	12	+3	44
13	Aston Villa	31	10	13	8	+6	43
14	Blackburn	33	11	10	12	-7	43
15	Sheffield Weds	32	10	11	11	-11	41
16	Brentford	31	10	10	11	+7	40
17	Stoke	33	9	13	11	-7	40
18	QPR	32	11	6	15	-9	39
19	Wigan	32	9	7	16	-14	34
20	Millwall	31	7	10	14	-11	31
21	Reading	33	6	11	16	-15	29
22	Rotherham	33	5	14	14	-20	29
23	Bolton	33	6	8	19	-30	26
24	Ipswich	33	3	11	19	-31	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	17	11	3	3	+18	36
2	Norwich	16	10	2	4	+9	32
3	Brentford	16	9	3	4	+14	30
4	Leeds	15	9	3	3	+10	30
5	Derby	14	8	5	1	+10	29
6	Nott'm Forest	16	8	4	4	+7	28
7	Wigan	16	8	4	4	+3	28
8	Blackburn	17	7	6	4	+6	27
9	West Brom	15	7	5	3	+14	26
10	Preston	17	6	8	3	+9	26
11	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
12	Bristol City	16	7	5	4	+5	26
13	Hull	16	7	4	5	+10	25
14	Birmingham	16	6	7	3	+9	25
15	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+4	25
16	Middlesbrough	15	6	6	3	+5	24
17	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+2	24
18	Stoke	16	7	3	6	+0	24
19	QPR	16	7	2	7	+1	23
20	Rotherham	17	5	8	4	-3	23
21	Sheffield Weds	15	5	7	3	-1	22
22	Reading	16	5	3	8	-2	18
23	Ipswich	17	2	9	6	-6	15
24	Bolton	17	3	4	10	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	17	8	7	2	+14	31
2	West Brom	16	9	3	4	+9	30
3	Middlesbrough	17	8	6	3	+7	30
4	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+5	27
5	Sheffield United	16	7	4	5	+6	25
6	Leeds	15	7	4	4	+2	25
7	Derby	15	6	4	5	+2	22
8	Birmingham	16	5	6	5	+0	21
9	Nott'm Forest	17	3	10	4	+1	19
10	Swansea	16	5	4	7	-1	19
11	Hull	16	5	4	7	-7	19
12	Sheffield Weds	17	5	4	8	-10	19
13	Preston	16	5	3	8	-6	18
14	Aston Villa	15	4	5	6	-1	17
15	Stoke	17	2	10	5	-7	16
16	QPR	16	4	4	8	-10	16
17	Blackburn	16	4	4	8	-13	16
18	Bolton	16	3	4	9	-15	13
19	Reading	17	1	8	8	-13	11
20	Brentford	15	1	7	7	-7	10
21	Millwall	15	1	4	10	-13	7
22	Wigan	16	1	3	12	-17	6
23	Rotherham	16	0	6	10	-17	6
24	Ipswich	16	1	2	13	-25	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.