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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Tagliavento

Carpi

S U U T T

1–3

Full-time

Roma

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Carpi Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 65%

63%

67%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

27% Possession 73%

7 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

5 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Carpi 18. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	24	17	5	2	+34	56
2	Juventus	24	17	3	4	+30	54
3	Fiorentina	24	14	4	6	+19	46
4	Inter	24	13	6	5	+10	45
5	Roma	24	12	8	4	+18	44
6	Milan	24	11	7	6	+9	40
7	Lazio	25	10	6	9	+0	36
8	Sassuolo	24	8	10	6	+0	34
9	Empoli	24	9	7	8	-3	34
10	Chievo	24	8	6	10	-3	30
11	Bologna	24	9	3	12	-3	30
12	Torino	24	7	7	10	-2	28
13	Atalanta	24	7	7	10	-4	28
14	Udinese	24	7	6	11	-16	27
15	Palermo	24	7	5	12	-13	26
16	Genoa	24	6	7	11	-4	25
17	Sampdoria	24	6	6	12	-7	24
18	Carpi	24	4	7	13	-18	19
19	Frosinone	24	5	4	15	-26	19
20	Verona	25	1	12	12	-21	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+19	32
2	Fiorentina	12	9	1	2	+16	28
3	Roma	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	Juventus	11	8	2	1	+12	26
5	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+10	24
6	Milan	12	7	3	2	+7	24
7	Inter	12	7	2	3	+5	23
8	Torino	13	5	4	4	+5	19
9	Atalanta	12	5	4	3	+5	19
10	Sampdoria	12	5	3	4	+4	18
11	Genoa	12	5	3	4	+4	18
12	Sassuolo	12	4	6	2	+0	18
13	Frosinone	13	5	2	6	-6	17
14	Empoli	11	4	3	4	+1	15
15	Bologna	13	4	3	6	+0	15
16	Palermo	12	4	2	6	-3	14
17	Chievo	11	3	4	4	-1	13
18	Carpi	12	3	4	5	-2	13
19	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-8	12
20	Verona	13	1	6	6	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	9	1	3	+18	28
2	Napoli	12	7	3	2	+15	24
3	Inter	12	6	4	2	+5	22
4	Empoli	13	5	4	4	-4	19
5	Fiorentina	12	5	3	4	+3	18
6	Roma	12	4	5	3	+4	17
7	Chievo	13	5	2	6	-2	17
8	Milan	12	4	4	4	+2	16
9	Sassuolo	12	4	4	4	+0	16
10	Bologna	11	5	0	6	-3	15
11	Udinese	13	4	3	6	-8	15
12	Lazio	12	3	3	6	-10	12
13	Palermo	12	3	3	6	-10	12
14	Torino	11	2	3	6	-7	9
15	Atalanta	12	2	3	7	-9	9
16	Genoa	12	1	4	7	-8	7
17	Sampdoria	12	1	3	8	-11	6
18	Verona	12	0	6	6	-13	6
19	Carpi	12	1	3	8	-16	6
20	Frosinone	11	0	2	9	-20	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.