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Ligue 1
Referee: Sebastien Moreira
Montpellier
T T
0–1
Full-time
Paris SG
S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,5
1,5
Scored
0,0
1,5
Conceded
1,5
0,0
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+1,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,5
1,5
Scored
0,0
1,5
Conceded
1,5
0,0
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%
10 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 1
2 Offside 7
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Montpellier 20. · Paris SG 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 2 2 0 0 +3 6
2 Reims 2 2 0 0 +2 6
3 Caen 2 2 0 0 +2 6
4 Angers 2 1 1 0 +2 4
5 Bastia 2 1 1 0 +1 4
6 Monaco 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Nantes 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Lyon 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Rennes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
10 Toulouse 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Troyes 2 0 2 0 +0 2
12 Lorient 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Nice 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Bordeaux 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 St Etienne 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Lille 2 0 1 1 -1 1
17 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2 0 1 1 -2 1
18 Marseille 2 0 0 2 -2 0
19 Guingamp 2 0 0 2 -2 0
20 Montpellier 2 0 0 2 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Montpellier Paris SG
10′
🔁 A. Rabiot
↦ J. Pastore
Ramy Bensebaini 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–0
49′
🟨 Blaise Matuidi
Ryad Boudebouz 🟨
55′
60′
⚽ B. Matuidi 0–1
Maxwell
S. Camara 🔁
↦ R. Bensebaini
68′
J. Marveaux 🔁
↦ P. Lasne
69′
69′
🔁 J. Augustin
↦ E. Lavezzi
M. Deplagne 🔁
↦ J. Roussillon
73′
74′
🟨 Thiago Motta
81′
🔁 B. Stambouli
↦ Lucas Moura
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Montpellier

30 J. Ligali G
3 D. Congré D
4 Hilton D
24 J. Roussillon D
15 R. Bensebaini D
10 R. Boudebouz M
17 P. Lasne M
14 B. Dabo M
8 J. Martin M
28 D. Bakar F
7 A. Mounier F
Bench (7)
19 S. Camara
6 J. Marveaux
25 M. Deplagne
1 L. Pionnier
21 W. Rémy
26 K. Bérigaud
31 Q. Cornette

Paris SG

16 K. Trapp G
17 Maxwell D
2 Thiago Silva D
32 David Luiz D
19 S. Aurier D
14 B. Matuidi M
8 Thiago Motta M
27 J. Pastore M
7 Lucas Moura M
9 E. Cavani F
22 E. Lavezzi F
Bench (7)
25 A. Rabiot
29 J. Augustin
4 B. Stambouli
3 P. Kimpembe
5 Marquinhos
30 S. Sirigu
31 Y. Sabaly

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Sebastien Moreira · 35 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
11,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,37 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.