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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Belenenses

S U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Tondela

T T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,3

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 17%

22%

11%

Points per game

1,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

56%

22%

Both score Ø 39%

44%

33%

Average goals

3,4

1,8

Scored

1,1

0,4

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 10

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 13. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+14	26
2	Porto	9	6	3	0	+14	21
3	Benfica	9	6	0	3	+15	18
4	Rio Ave	10	5	3	2	+5	18
5	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+12	17
6	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	5	2	+2	14
7	Maritimo	10	4	2	4	-2	14
8	Estoril	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	2	4	-3	14
10	Arouca	10	2	6	2	+0	12
11	Nacional	10	3	2	5	-2	11
12	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-7	10
13	Belenenses	9	2	4	3	-11	10
14	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
15	Moreirense	10	1	4	5	-7	7
16	U. Madeira	7	1	3	3	-2	6
17	Academica	10	1	3	6	-11	6
18	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+13	15
3	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+13	13
4	Rio Ave	5	4	0	1	+3	12
5	Estoril	5	3	2	0	+4	11
6	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
7	Maritimo	5	3	1	1	+3	10
8	Belenenses	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Nacional	4	2	2	0	+3	8
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-1	7
12	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-5	4
18	Academica	5	1	1	3	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Arouca	5	1	4	0	+2	7
3	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	1	2	+1	7
4	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
5	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	+2	6
6	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-5	5
8	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-6	5
9	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Maritimo	5	1	1	3	-5	4
11	Benfica	3	1	0	2	+2	3
12	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-5	3
13	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-7	3
14	Academica	5	0	2	3	-4	2
15	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
16	Belenenses	5	0	2	3	-14	2
17	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-3	1
18	U. Madeira	4	0	1	3	-3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.