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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Arouca

U T U U U

1–1

Full-time

Tondela

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,8

1,2

Scored

0,8

0,3

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

29%

14%

Points per game

1,4

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 22%

29%

14%

Both score Ø 36%

43%

29%

Average goals

1,9

1,4

Scored

1,0

0,4

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1 Shots 1

1 Shots on target 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 9. · Tondela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	5	2	0	+12	17
2	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+9	17
3	Rio Ave	8	4	3	1	+5	15
4	Pacos Ferreira	8	4	2	2	+0	14
5	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+8	13
6	Estoril	8	4	1	3	-2	13
7	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+12	12
8	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	4	1	+2	10
9	Arouca	7	2	4	1	+1	10
10	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Nacional	8	2	2	4	-2	8
12	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Guimaraes	8	1	4	3	-7	7
14	Belenenses	7	1	4	2	-8	7
15	U. Madeira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
16	Tondela	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Academica	8	1	1	6	-11	4
18	Moreirense	7	0	3	4	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Rio Ave	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Nacional	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Tondela	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Academica	4	1	0	3	-7	3
18	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
3	Rio Ave	4	1	3	0	+3	6
4	Arouca	4	1	3	0	+2	6
5	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-3	5
7	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Sp Braga	3	1	0	2	-1	3
9	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-6	3
10	Guimaraes	4	0	2	2	-7	2
11	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-10	2
12	U. Madeira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Academica	4	0	1	3	-4	1
14	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
15	Maritimo	4	0	1	3	-6	1
16	Benfica	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-3	0
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.