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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Academica

U U U U T

4–3

Full-time

Belenenses

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Academica Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 17%

25%

Points per game

0,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

25%

58%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Academica 17. · Belenenses 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+18	35
2	Porto	13	10	3	0	+21	33
3	Benfica	12	9	0	3	+22	27
4	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+12	24
5	Rio Ave	13	6	3	4	+4	21
6	Pacos Ferreira	13	6	2	5	+4	20
7	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	6	3	+3	18
8	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-4	17
9	Arouca	13	3	7	3	-1	16
10	Guimaraes	13	4	4	5	-5	16
11	Estoril	13	4	4	5	-5	16
12	Nacional	13	4	3	6	-1	15
13	Belenenses	12	3	4	5	-14	13
14	Moreirense	13	2	5	6	-8	11
15	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
16	U. Madeira	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	Academica	12	1	4	7	-14	7
18	Tondela	13	1	2	10	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+16	18
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+9	16
4	Rio Ave	7	5	0	2	+4	15
5	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
6	Pacos Ferreira	7	4	1	2	+7	13
7	Estoril	6	3	3	0	+4	12
8	Nacional	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Belenenses	6	3	2	1	+1	11
10	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+2	10
11	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	+0	8
12	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	5	1	-1	8
13	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	U. Madeira	6	2	2	2	-2	8
15	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Academica	6	1	2	3	-7	5
18	Tondela	7	1	1	5	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+1	11
4	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Benfica	5	3	0	2	+6	9
6	Arouca	7	1	5	1	+0	8
7	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-5	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-3	7
9	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-6	7
10	Rio Ave	6	1	3	2	+0	6
11	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-6	5
12	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-6	5
13	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-5	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-9	4
15	Academica	6	0	2	4	-7	2
16	U. Madeira	6	0	2	4	-9	2
17	Belenenses	6	0	2	4	-15	2
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.