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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira

Benfica

S T S S S

4–1

Full-time

Tondela

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

0,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 46%

80%

12%

Points per game

2,4

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

68%

48%

Both score Ø 46%

36%

56%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

2,6

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

65% Possession 35%

18 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 7

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	26	19	5	2	+35	62
2	Benfica	25	20	1	4	+49	61
3	Porto	26	18	4	4	+29	58
4	Sp Braga	26	13	8	5	+22	47
5	Arouca	26	10	11	5	+8	41
6	Rio Ave	26	10	6	10	-2	36
7	Pacos Ferreira	26	9	8	9	+0	35
8	Guimaraes	26	8	10	8	-4	34
9	Estoril	26	9	6	11	-3	33
10	Belenenses	26	8	8	10	-18	32
11	Nacional	26	8	7	11	-7	31
12	Maritimo	26	8	5	13	-15	29
13	Vitoria Setubal	26	6	10	10	-11	28
14	Moreirense	26	7	6	13	-13	27
15	U. Madeira	26	6	7	13	-17	25
16	Boavista	26	6	6	14	-13	24
17	Academica	26	5	8	13	-18	23
18	Tondela	25	3	4	18	-22	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	10	2	1	+17	32
2	Benfica	12	10	0	2	+27	30
3	Sp Lisbon	13	9	3	1	+14	30
4	Sp Braga	12	8	3	1	+22	27
5	Arouca	13	6	4	3	+6	22
6	Rio Ave	13	7	1	5	+2	22
7	Estoril	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Nacional	13	6	3	4	+2	21
9	U. Madeira	13	5	5	3	+2	20
10	Belenenses	13	5	4	4	-3	19
11	Academica	13	5	4	4	-3	19
12	Pacos Ferreira	13	5	3	5	+3	18
13	Guimaraes	14	4	5	5	+1	17
14	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	+0	17
15	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	8	3	-7	14
16	Moreirense	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
18	Tondela	13	1	2	10	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+21	32
2	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+22	31
3	Porto	13	8	2	3	+12	26
4	Sp Braga	14	5	5	4	+0	20
5	Arouca	13	4	7	2	+2	19
6	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	5	4	-3	17
7	Guimaraes	12	4	5	3	-5	17
8	Moreirense	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Rio Ave	13	3	5	5	-4	14
10	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	2	7	-4	14
11	Boavista	13	4	2	7	-5	14
12	Belenenses	13	3	4	6	-15	13
13	Estoril	13	3	3	7	-8	12
14	Maritimo	13	3	3	7	-15	12
15	Nacional	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Tondela	12	2	2	8	-8	8
17	U. Madeira	13	1	2	10	-19	5
18	Academica	13	0	4	9	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.