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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Oliveira

Moreirense

T T S T T

1–2

Full-time

Tondela

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,8

Scored

1,5

Conceded

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 18%

26%

Points per game

1,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 55%

52%

57%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%

8 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

6 Offside 6

17 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 15. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	23	18	4	1	+35	58
2	Benfica	23	18	1	4	+46	55
3	Porto	23	16	4	3	+29	52
4	Sp Braga	24	12	8	4	+23	44
5	Rio Ave	24	10	6	8	+1	36
6	Arouca	24	8	11	5	+6	35
7	Guimaraes	23	8	9	6	-1	33
8	Pacos Ferreira	24	8	7	9	-1	31
9	Estoril	24	8	6	10	-4	30
10	Vitoria Setubal	24	6	10	8	-9	28
11	Belenenses	23	7	7	9	-20	28
12	Nacional	24	6	7	11	-9	25
13	Maritimo	23	7	4	12	-13	25
14	U. Madeira	23	6	6	11	-14	24
15	Moreirense	23	6	5	12	-13	23
16	Boavista	24	5	6	13	-15	21
17	Academica	23	4	7	12	-19	19
18	Tondela	23	2	4	17	-22	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	9	3	0	+15	30
2	Porto	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Benfica	11	9	0	2	+25	27
4	Sp Braga	11	7	3	1	+20	24
5	Rio Ave	12	7	1	4	+4	22
6	Estoril	12	6	3	3	+6	21
7	Arouca	12	5	4	3	+5	19
8	U. Madeira	12	5	4	3	+2	19
9	Nacional	12	5	3	4	+1	18
10	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	2	5	+3	17
11	Guimaraes	12	4	4	4	+2	16
12	Academica	12	4	4	4	-5	16
13	Belenenses	11	4	4	3	-5	16
14	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	+2	14
15	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	8	2	-6	14
16	Boavista	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	Moreirense	11	2	3	6	-7	9
18	Tondela	12	1	2	9	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+21	28
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+20	28
3	Porto	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	Sp Braga	13	5	5	3	+3	20
5	Guimaraes	11	4	5	2	-3	17
6	Arouca	12	3	7	2	+1	16
7	Rio Ave	12	3	5	4	-3	14
8	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	2	6	-3	14
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	5	4	-4	14
10	Moreirense	12	4	2	6	-6	14
11	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-15	12
12	Boavista	12	3	2	7	-8	11
13	Maritimo	12	3	2	7	-15	11
14	Estoril	12	2	3	7	-10	9
15	Nacional	12	1	4	7	-10	7
16	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-9	5
17	U. Madeira	11	1	2	8	-16	5
18	Academica	11	0	3	8	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.