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Primeira Liga

Referee: Sergio Piscarreta

Sp Braga

S T U S T

3–2

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 34%

48%

19%

Points per game

1,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

45%

58%

Both score Ø 47%

39%

55%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

63% Possession 37%

18 Shots 11

10 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 17

9 Yellow cards 4

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Vitoria Setubal 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	32	27	1	4	+61	82
2	Sp Lisbon	31	24	5	2	+47	77
3	Porto	31	21	4	6	+33	67
4	Sp Braga	31	15	9	7	+22	54
5	Arouca	31	12	13	6	+6	49
6	Rio Ave	31	13	7	11	+1	46
7	Pacos Ferreira	31	12	9	10	+2	45
8	Estoril	31	12	7	12	-1	43
9	Nacional	31	10	7	14	-10	37
10	Belenenses	31	9	10	12	-21	37
11	Guimaraes	32	8	12	12	-11	36
12	Maritimo	31	10	5	16	-14	35
13	Moreirense	31	8	8	15	-14	32
14	Boavista	31	7	8	16	-14	29
15	Vitoria Setubal	31	6	11	14	-15	29
16	U. Madeira	31	6	8	17	-23	26
17	Academica	31	5	9	17	-24	24
18	Tondela	31	6	5	20	-25	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	0	2	+36	42
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	3	1	+22	39
3	Porto	15	11	2	2	+20	35
4	Sp Braga	15	10	4	1	+27	34
5	Rio Ave	16	9	1	6	+4	28
6	Estoril	15	8	3	4	+7	27
7	Nacional	16	8	3	5	+5	27
8	Arouca	15	7	5	3	+7	26
9	Pacos Ferreira	16	7	4	5	+5	25
10	Maritimo	16	7	2	7	+4	23
11	U. Madeira	15	5	6	4	+1	21
12	Belenenses	15	5	5	5	-6	20
13	Guimaraes	16	4	7	5	+1	19
14	Academica	16	5	4	7	-8	19
15	Boavista	16	3	5	8	-8	14
16	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	8	6	-10	14
17	Moreirense	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+25	40
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+25	38
3	Porto	16	10	2	4	+13	32
4	Arouca	16	5	8	3	-1	23
5	Moreirense	16	6	4	6	-4	22
6	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-3	20
7	Sp Braga	16	5	5	6	-5	20
8	Rio Ave	15	4	6	5	-3	18
9	Guimaraes	16	4	5	7	-12	17
10	Belenenses	16	4	5	7	-15	17
11	Estoril	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Vitoria Setubal	15	4	3	8	-5	15
13	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-6	15
14	Tondela	16	4	2	10	-12	14
15	Maritimo	15	3	3	9	-18	12
16	Nacional	15	2	4	9	-15	10
17	Academica	15	0	5	10	-16	5
18	U. Madeira	16	1	2	13	-24	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.