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Primeira Liga
Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa
1–1
Full-time
Sp Braga
S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Sp Braga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,2
1,7
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
1,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 43%
36%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
64%
29%
Both score Ø 39%
57%
21%
Average goals
3,4
1,9
Scored
1,9
1,4
Conceded
1,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%
9 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 2
0 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 5
0 Offside 4
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 5. · Sp Braga 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 14 11 3 0 +23 36
2 Sp Lisbon 14 11 2 1 +17 35
3 Benfica 14 10 1 3 +24 31
4 Sp Braga 14 7 4 3 +12 25
5 Vitoria Setubal 14 5 6 3 +5 21
6 Pacos Ferreira 14 6 3 5 +4 21
7 Rio Ave 14 6 3 5 +2 21
8 Arouca 15 4 8 3 +2 20
9 Guimaraes 14 5 4 5 -4 19
10 Maritimo 15 5 3 7 -7 18
11 Moreirense 15 4 5 6 -3 17
12 Estoril 15 4 5 6 -6 17
13 Nacional 15 4 4 7 -3 16
14 Belenenses 14 4 4 6 -14 16
15 U. Madeira 15 3 5 7 -12 14
16 Academica 15 3 4 8 -13 13
17 Boavista 15 2 4 9 -12 10
18 Tondela 14 1 2 11 -15 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vitoria Setubal Sp Braga
1–0 Hyun-Jun Suk
4′
Half-time 1–0
Ruca 🟨
54′
André Horta 🟨
60′
62′
Marcelo Goiano 1–1
63′
🔁 Rui Fonte
↦ Wilson Eduardo
Paulo Tavares 🔁
↦ Vasco Costa
65′
A. Issoko 🔁
↦ André Horta
76′
78′
🔁 Pedro Santos
↦ Rafa Silva
81′
🟨 Nikola Vukčević
88′
🟨 Willy Boly
89′
🔁 Filipe Augusto
↦ N.S. Vukčević
Hassan 🔁
↦ André Claro
92′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Vitoria Setubal

1 L. Raeder G
22 William Alves D
66 Ricardo Dani
6 Fabio Pacheco M
90 Ruca M
35 Rúben Semedo D
77 André Horta M
18 André Claro F
10 Hyun-Jun Suk F
23 Vasco Costa F
11 Costinha M
Bench (7)
8 Paulo Tavares
19 A. Issoko
9 Hassan
12 Miguel Lázaro
20 T. Gorupec
42 Alexandre Cardoso
44 Miguel Lourenço

Sp Braga

1 S. Kritsyuk G
15 Baiano D
24 Ricardo Ferreira D
5 W. Boly D
87 Marcelo Goiano D
8 Luiz Carlos M
35 N.S. Vukčević M
18 Rafa Silva F
30 Alan M
19 N. Stojiljković F
7 Wilson Eduardo F
Bench (7)
17 Rui Fonte
23 Pedro Santos
21 Filipe Augusto
6 André Pinto
10 Joan Román
63 Mauro
92 Matheus

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Rui Manuel Gomes Costa · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.