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2. Bundesliga

Dresden

U T U T S

2–1

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dresden Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 30%

21%

38%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

54%

50%

Both score Ø 52%

54%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

16 Shots 11

12 Shots on target 4

5 Corners 3

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Dresden 18. · Erzgebirge Aue 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bielefeld	24	14	8	2	+26	50
2	Hamburg	25	12	8	5	+20	44
3	Stuttgart	24	13	5	6	+13	44
4	Heidenheim	25	11	8	6	+8	41
5	Darmstadt	25	8	12	5	+0	36
6	Greuther Furth	24	10	5	9	+4	35
7	Erzgebirge Aue	24	9	7	8	+1	34
8	Holstein Kiel	24	9	6	9	+0	33
9	Hannover	25	8	8	9	-3	32
10	Regensburg	25	9	5	11	-6	32
11	St Pauli	24	7	8	9	+1	29
12	Osnabruck	25	7	8	10	-3	29
13	Nurnberg	25	7	8	10	-11	29
14	Sandhausen	24	6	10	8	-3	28
15	Bochum	25	6	10	9	-5	28
16	Wehen	25	6	7	12	-12	25
17	Karlsruhe	25	5	9	11	-13	24
18	Dresden	24	5	6	13	-17	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	12	10	0	2	+18	30
2	Hamburg	12	9	1	2	+18	28
3	Erzgebirge Aue	12	8	3	1	+13	27
4	Heidenheim	13	7	4	2	+11	25
5	Bielefeld	12	6	5	1	+12	23
6	St Pauli	13	6	4	3	+8	22
7	Greuther Furth	12	7	1	4	+4	22
8	Darmstadt	13	4	8	1	+4	20
9	Regensburg	12	6	2	4	+2	20
10	Osnabruck	13	5	3	5	+2	18
11	Sandhausen	12	4	5	3	+0	17
12	Bochum	13	3	7	3	+1	16
13	Dresden	12	4	2	6	-3	14
14	Nurnberg	13	3	5	5	-9	14
15	Holstein Kiel	11	3	4	4	-2	13
16	Karlsruhe	12	3	4	5	-4	13
17	Hannover	12	2	7	3	-4	13
18	Wehen	12	2	4	6	-13	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bielefeld	12	8	3	1	+14	27
2	Holstein Kiel	13	6	2	5	+2	20
3	Hannover	13	6	1	6	+1	19
4	Hamburg	13	3	7	3	+2	16
5	Heidenheim	12	4	4	4	-3	16
6	Darmstadt	12	4	4	4	-4	16
7	Wehen	13	4	3	6	+1	15
8	Nurnberg	12	4	3	5	-2	15
9	Stuttgart	12	3	5	4	-5	14
10	Greuther Furth	12	3	4	5	+0	13
11	Bochum	12	3	3	6	-6	12
12	Regensburg	13	3	3	7	-8	12
13	Sandhausen	12	2	5	5	-3	11
14	Osnabruck	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Karlsruhe	13	2	5	6	-9	11
16	St Pauli	11	1	4	6	-7	7
17	Erzgebirge Aue	12	1	4	7	-12	7
18	Dresden	12	1	4	7	-14	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.