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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Milan

S U T S U

1–2

Full-time

Genoa

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

40%

72%

Both score Ø 56%

48%

64%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

62% Possession 38%

13 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Milan 7. · Genoa 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	26	19	5	2	+37	62
2	Juventus	25	19	3	3	+24	60
3	Inter	24	16	6	2	+27	54
4	Atalanta	25	14	6	5	+36	48
5	Roma	26	13	6	7	+16	45
6	Napoli	26	11	6	9	+5	39
7	Milan	25	10	6	9	-5	36
8	Verona	24	9	8	7	+4	35
9	Parma	25	10	5	10	+1	35
10	Bologna	26	9	7	10	-4	34
11	Cagliari	25	8	8	9	+1	32
12	Sassuolo	24	8	5	11	-1	29
13	Fiorentina	25	7	8	10	-4	29
14	Udinese	25	7	6	12	-16	27
15	Torino	25	8	3	14	-17	27
16	Lecce	26	6	7	13	-22	25
17	Sampdoria	24	6	5	13	-17	23
18	Genoa	25	5	7	13	-17	22
19	Spal	26	5	3	18	-24	18
20	Brescia	25	4	4	17	-24	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	14	11	3	0	+29	36
2	Juventus	12	11	1	0	+19	34
3	Inter	12	7	4	1	+13	25
4	Roma	13	6	3	4	+7	21
5	Verona	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Atalanta	12	6	2	4	+14	20
7	Parma	13	6	1	6	+5	19
8	Udinese	12	5	3	4	-2	18
9	Cagliari	13	5	2	6	+2	17
10	Napoli	13	5	2	6	-1	17
11	Milan	12	4	5	3	-1	17
12	Bologna	13	4	5	4	-2	17
13	Sassuolo	12	5	1	6	+3	16
14	Fiorentina	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Torino	12	4	2	6	-11	14
16	Genoa	12	4	1	7	-4	13
17	Sampdoria	13	3	4	6	-7	13
18	Lecce	13	2	5	6	-7	11
19	Spal	12	2	2	8	-9	8
20	Brescia	13	1	3	9	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	2	1	+14	29
2	Atalanta	13	8	4	1	+22	28
3	Lazio	12	8	2	2	+8	26
4	Juventus	13	8	2	3	+5	26
5	Roma	13	7	3	3	+9	24
6	Napoli	13	6	4	3	+6	22
7	Milan	13	6	1	6	-4	19
8	Bologna	13	5	2	6	-2	17
9	Parma	12	4	4	4	-4	16
10	Fiorentina	12	4	3	5	+0	15
11	Cagliari	12	3	6	3	-1	15
12	Verona	12	3	5	4	-1	14
13	Lecce	13	4	2	7	-15	14
14	Sassuolo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	Torino	13	4	1	8	-6	13
16	Sampdoria	11	3	1	7	-10	10
17	Brescia	12	3	1	8	-12	10
18	Spal	14	3	1	10	-15	10
19	Genoa	13	1	6	6	-13	9
20	Udinese	13	2	3	8	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.