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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Luton

S S U S T

3–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

This season — Championship · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 42%

40%

44%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

60%

19%

Both score Ø 36%

40%

31%

Average goals

3,1

2,1

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

10 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 0

3 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 9. · Middlesbrough 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	16	11	5	0	+18	38
2	Fulham	15	10	2	3	+22	32
3	West Brom	16	9	4	3	+12	31
4	Coventry	16	9	3	4	+7	30
5	Huddersfield	14	7	3	4	+4	24
6	Middlesbrough	16	7	3	6	+4	24
7	Blackpool	15	7	3	5	+0	24
8	Blackburn	15	6	5	4	+7	23
9	Luton	15	6	5	4	+6	23
10	Swansea	16	6	5	5	+4	23
11	QPR	16	6	4	6	+2	22
12	Stoke	15	6	4	5	+1	22
13	Bristol City	16	6	4	6	-3	22
14	Reading	16	7	1	8	-4	22
15	Sheffield United	16	6	3	7	+2	21
16	Preston	16	5	6	5	-1	21
17	Millwall	15	5	6	4	-1	21
18	Birmingham	16	5	4	7	-6	19
19	Derby	16	3	8	5	-3	17
20	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-4	15
21	Peterboro	16	4	3	9	-14	15
22	Peterborough	15	4	2	9	-14	14
23	Cardiff	16	3	4	9	-14	13
24	Hull	16	2	3	11	-13	9
25	Barnsley	15	1	5	9	-12	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Fulham	8	6	1	1	+14	19
3	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+9	18
4	Preston	9	5	3	1	+4	18
5	West Brom	7	5	2	0	+10	17
6	Bournemouth	7	5	2	0	+9	17
7	Stoke	8	5	2	1	+5	17
8	Middlesbrough	9	5	1	3	+5	16
9	Huddersfield	7	5	1	1	+5	16
10	Reading	9	5	1	3	+3	16
11	QPR	8	4	3	1	+5	15
12	Blackburn	7	4	2	1	+8	14
13	Luton	7	4	2	1	+7	14
14	Sheffield United	9	4	1	4	+6	13
15	Peterboro	8	3	3	2	+3	12
16	Blackpool	7	4	0	3	-1	12
17	Peterborough	7	3	2	2	+3	11
18	Derby	8	2	5	1	+1	11
19	Millwall	7	3	2	2	+0	11
20	Birmingham	7	2	2	3	-5	8
21	Bristol City	8	1	4	3	-3	7
22	Barnsley	7	1	2	4	-4	5
23	Hull	9	1	2	6	-7	5
24	Cardiff	7	1	1	5	-7	4
25	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	9	6	3	0	+9	21
2	Bristol City	8	5	0	3	+0	15
3	West Brom	9	4	2	3	+2	14
4	Fulham	7	4	1	2	+8	13
5	Blackpool	8	3	3	2	+1	12
6	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+4	11
7	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-1	11
8	Millwall	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Luton	8	2	3	3	-1	9
10	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Cardiff	9	2	3	4	-7	9
12	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Middlesbrough	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Sheffield United	7	2	2	3	-4	8
15	Coventry	8	2	2	4	-7	8
16	QPR	8	2	1	5	-3	7
17	Derby	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	Reading	7	2	0	5	-7	6
19	Stoke	7	1	2	4	-4	5
20	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-5	5
21	Hull	7	1	1	5	-6	4
22	Preston	7	0	3	4	-5	3
23	Barnsley	8	0	3	5	-8	3
24	Peterboro	8	1	0	7	-17	3
25	Peterborough	8	1	0	7	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.