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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Luton

S U S S T

2–1

Full-time

Bristol City

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,8

5,0

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,2

2,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

This season — Championship · 25/28 matches

Win Ø 38%

40%

36%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

52%

61%

Both score Ø 54%

40%

68%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

8 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 9

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 13. · Bristol City 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	28	18	6	4	+49	60
2	Blackburn	29	16	7	6	+19	55
3	West Brom	29	14	9	6	+18	51
4	Bournemouth	28	14	8	6	+19	50
5	QPR	27	14	5	8	+8	47
6	Middlesbrough	28	13	6	9	+7	45
7	Huddersfield	27	12	8	7	+6	44
8	Coventry	27	12	7	8	+10	43
9	Stoke	27	12	5	10	+6	41
10	Nott'm Forest	26	11	6	9	+6	39
11	Blackpool	28	11	6	11	-2	39
12	Sheffield United	25	11	5	9	+5	38
13	Luton	25	10	7	8	+8	37
14	Preston	27	9	9	9	-3	36
15	Bristol City	28	10	6	12	-11	36
16	Derby	28	8	11	9	-1	35
17	Swansea	25	9	7	9	-1	34
18	Millwall	27	8	9	10	-3	33
19	Birmingham	29	8	8	13	-15	32
20	Reading	28	9	4	15	-16	31
21	Hull	28	8	5	15	-9	29
22	Cardiff	27	6	6	15	-19	24
23	Peterboro	26	5	5	16	-30	20
24	Peterborough	25	5	4	16	-30	19
25	Barnsley	26	2	9	15	-21	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	16	11	3	2	+18	36
2	West Brom	14	9	5	0	+18	32
3	Fulham	14	9	3	2	+24	30
4	Middlesbrough	15	9	2	4	+9	29
5	Coventry	14	8	2	4	+11	26
6	Blackpool	16	8	2	6	+0	26
7	Bournemouth	13	7	3	3	+12	24
8	Huddersfield	12	7	3	2	+6	24
9	QPR	13	7	3	3	+6	24
10	Stoke	15	7	3	5	+5	24
11	Preston	14	6	6	2	+4	24
12	Derby	13	6	5	2	+5	23
13	Swansea	13	6	4	3	+6	22
14	Luton	12	6	3	3	+8	21
15	Sheffield United	12	6	2	4	+10	20
16	Nott'm Forest	14	6	2	6	+0	20
17	Bristol City	15	5	5	5	-1	20
18	Millwall	12	5	4	3	+2	19
19	Birmingham	14	5	4	5	-2	19
20	Reading	16	5	4	7	-8	19
21	Peterboro	12	4	4	4	+0	16
22	Peterborough	12	4	4	4	+0	16
23	Hull	14	4	3	7	-4	15
24	Barnsley	12	2	4	6	-7	10
25	Cardiff	12	2	1	9	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	14	9	3	2	+25	30
2	Bournemouth	15	7	5	3	+7	26
3	QPR	14	7	2	5	+2	23
4	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	+0	20
5	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+6	19
6	Blackburn	13	5	4	4	+1	19
7	West Brom	15	5	4	6	+0	19
8	Sheffield United	13	5	3	5	-5	18
9	Stoke	12	5	2	5	+1	17
10	Coventry	13	4	5	4	-1	17
11	Cardiff	15	4	5	6	-9	17
12	Luton	13	4	4	5	+0	16
13	Middlesbrough	13	4	4	5	-2	16
14	Bristol City	13	5	1	7	-10	16
15	Millwall	15	3	5	7	-5	14
16	Hull	14	4	2	8	-5	14
17	Blackpool	12	3	4	5	-2	13
18	Birmingham	15	3	4	8	-13	13
19	Derby	15	2	6	7	-6	12
20	Swansea	12	3	3	6	-7	12
21	Preston	13	3	3	7	-7	12
22	Reading	12	4	0	8	-8	12
23	Barnsley	14	0	5	9	-14	5
24	Peterboro	14	1	1	12	-30	4
25	Peterborough	13	1	0	12	-30	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.