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Championship

Referee: S Gill

Millwall

S T U T T

1–0

Full-time

Leicester

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 41/40 matches

Win Ø 49%

27%

70%

Points per game

1,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

39%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

41%

58%

Average goals

2,2

2,9

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,64 xG 0,90

28% Possession 72%

6 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 20. · Leicester 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	40	28	4	8	+43	+32.8	88
2	Ipswich	41	26	9	6	+32	+23.5	87
3	Leeds	39	24	8	7	+41	+34.7	80
4	West Brom	39	19	12	8	+26	+5.1	69
5	Southampton	37	20	9	8	+22	+28.6	69
6	Norwich	39	20	7	12	+17	+0.0	67
7	Coventry	40	17	12	11	+18	+11.8	63
8	Middlesbrough	41	18	7	16	+5	+13.7	61
9	Hull	40	17	10	13	+5	+4.6	61
10	Preston	40	17	9	14	-3	-11.7	60
11	Cardiff	41	17	5	19	-11	-23.8	56
12	Bristol City	41	15	9	17	-1	-3.6	54
13	Sunderland	41	15	7	19	+1	+7.4	52
14	Watford	41	12	15	14	+2	+1.1	51
15	Swansea	41	12	11	18	-13	-9.7	47
16	Blackburn	41	12	10	19	-10	-5.0	46
17	QPR	41	12	10	19	-14	-6.8	46
18	Stoke	41	12	10	19	-16	-2.2	46
19	Plymouth	41	11	11	19	-9	-17.2	44
20	Millwall	41	11	11	19	-16	-11.6	44
21	Huddersfield	41	9	16	16	-20	-10.5	43
22	Birmingham	41	11	9	21	-18	-9.1	42
23	Sheffield Weds	41	12	6	23	-31	-9.9	42
24	Rotherham	41	4	11	26	-50	-41.9	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	19	15	4	0	+30	+24.2	49
2	Ipswich	20	15	4	1	+25	+22.0	49
3	Norwich	20	15	2	3	+22	+9.7	47
4	Leicester	20	15	1	4	+25	+17.6	46
5	West Brom	19	13	4	2	+19	+9.3	43
6	Southampton	18	11	3	4	+20	+20.1	36
7	Coventry	20	9	8	3	+12	+7.9	35
8	Preston	20	10	4	6	+0	-4.5	34
9	Sunderland	21	10	2	9	+3	+6.2	32
10	Middlesbrough	21	9	4	8	+3	+11.6	31
11	Birmingham	20	8	6	6	+3	+0.7	30
12	Bristol City	20	9	3	8	+3	+0.1	30
13	Cardiff	21	9	3	9	-3	-11.1	30
14	Hull	20	7	7	6	+5	+6.8	28
15	Plymouth	20	8	4	8	+4	-7.8	28
16	Sheffield Weds	20	7	5	8	-3	+2.0	26
17	Huddersfield	21	6	7	8	-6	-2.3	25
18	Blackburn	21	6	6	9	-5	+1.5	24
19	Stoke	21	6	6	9	-10	+0.5	24
20	Watford	21	5	8	8	+3	+8.3	23
21	Swansea	20	6	5	9	-5	+0.4	23
22	Millwall	20	6	5	9	-11	-3.8	23
23	QPR	21	5	6	10	-9	+0.0	21
24	Rotherham	21	4	7	10	-7	-13.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	20	13	3	4	+18	+15.2	42
2	Ipswich	21	11	5	5	+7	+1.4	38
3	Southampton	19	9	6	4	+2	+8.5	33
4	Hull	20	10	3	7	+0	-2.2	33
5	Leeds	20	9	4	7	+11	+10.4	31
6	Middlesbrough	20	9	3	8	+2	+2.1	30
7	Coventry	20	8	4	8	+6	+3.9	28
8	Watford	20	7	7	6	-1	-7.2	28
9	West Brom	20	6	8	6	+7	-4.3	26
10	Preston	20	7	5	8	-3	-7.3	26
11	Cardiff	20	8	2	10	-8	-12.7	26
12	QPR	20	7	4	9	-5	-6.8	25
13	Bristol City	21	6	6	9	-4	-3.7	24
14	Swansea	21	6	6	9	-8	-10.1	24
15	Blackburn	20	6	4	10	-5	-6.6	22
16	Stoke	20	6	4	10	-6	-2.7	22
17	Millwall	21	5	6	10	-5	-7.8	21
18	Sunderland	20	5	5	10	-2	+1.2	20
19	Norwich	19	5	5	9	-5	-9.7	20
20	Huddersfield	20	3	9	8	-14	-8.2	18
21	Plymouth	21	3	7	11	-13	-9.4	16
22	Sheffield Weds	21	5	1	15	-28	-11.9	16
23	Birmingham	21	3	3	15	-21	-9.8	12
24	Rotherham	20	0	4	16	-43	-28.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.