← Match Finder
Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Real Madrid
U U S S S
3–3
Full-time
Man City
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Team trends

Real Madrid Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
2,3
2,3
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 94%
88%
100%
Points per game
2,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 82%
63%
100%
Both score Ø 76%
63%
88%
Average goals
3,3
4,1
Scored
2,3
3,0
Conceded
1,0
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,65 xG 0,80
38% Possession 62%
14 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 2
11 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

17. May -23 Man City – Real Madrid 4–0 9. May -23 Real Madrid – Man City 1–1

Match report

Real Madrid Man City
Aurélien Tchouaméni 🟨
1′
2′
⚽ Bernardo Silva 0–1
0–2 Rúben Dias ⚽
own goal
12′
1–2 Rodrygo ⚽
Vinícius Júnior
14′
37′
🟨 Manuel Akanji
Half-time 1–3
66′
⚽ P. Foden 1–3
J. Stones
71′
⚽ J. Gvardiol 1–4
J. Grealish
Brahim Díaz 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
72′
L. Modrić 🔁
↦ T. Kroos
72′
2–4 F. Valverde ⚽
Vinícius Júnior
79′
Daniel Carvajal 🟨
81′
Joselu 🔁
↦ Vinícius Júnior
86′
87′
🔁 J. Álvarez
↦ P. Foden
88′
🟨 Bernardo Silva
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
13 A. Lunin G
2 Dani Carvajal D
18 A. Tchouaméni D
22 A. Rüdiger D
23 F. Mendy D
12 E. Camavinga M
8 T. Kroos M
15 F. Valverde M
5 J. Bellingham M
11 Rodrygo M
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (11)
21 Brahim Díaz
10 L. Modrić
14 Joselu
20 Fran García
6 Nacho
3 Éder Militão
25 Kepa
17 Lucas Vázquez
24 A. Güler
19 Dani Ceballos
30 Fran González

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Man City

4-2-3-1
18 S. Ortega G
25 M. Akanji D
5 J. Stones D
3 Rúben Dias D
24 J. Gvardiol D
16 Rodri M
8 M. Kovačić M
20 Bernardo Silva M
47 P. Foden M
10 J. Grealish M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (10)
19 J. Álvarez
82 R. Lewis
27 Matheus Nunes
11 J. Doku
31 Ederson
76 Mahamadou Susoho
21 Sergio Gómez
17 K. De Bruyne
52 O. Bobb
33 S. Carson

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.