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Premier League

Referee: M Dean

Liverpool

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 38%

69%

Points per game

2,3

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

38%

69%

Average goals

3,6

3,2

Scored

2,8

1,1

Conceded

0,8

2,1

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

74% Possession 26%

23 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 4

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 2. · Newcastle 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	2	2	+31	41
2	Liverpool	16	11	4	1	+33	37
3	Chelsea	17	11	4	2	+27	37
4	Arsenal	17	9	2	6	+1	29
5	West Ham	17	8	4	5	+7	28
6	Man United	16	8	3	5	+2	27
7	Tottenham	14	8	1	5	-1	25
8	Wolves	17	7	3	7	-1	24
9	Leicester	16	6	4	6	+0	22
10	Aston Villa	17	7	1	9	-2	22
11	Crystal Palace	17	4	8	5	+0	20
12	Brentford	16	5	5	6	-1	20
13	Brighton	16	4	8	4	-3	20
14	Everton	17	5	4	8	-8	19
15	Southampton	17	3	8	6	-10	17
16	Leeds	17	3	7	7	-15	16
17	Watford	16	4	1	11	-10	13
18	Burnley	15	1	8	6	-7	11
19	Newcastle	16	1	7	8	-17	10
20	Norwich	17	2	4	11	-26	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	1	1	+22	22
2	Arsenal	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Chelsea	9	5	3	1	+15	18
4	Liverpool	8	5	3	0	+14	18
5	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+3	18
6	Crystal Palace	9	3	5	1	+6	14
7	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Leicester	8	4	1	3	+3	13
9	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+3	13
10	Man United	8	4	1	3	+1	13
11	Everton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
12	Southampton	8	2	5	1	+1	11
13	Brentford	8	3	1	4	+0	10
14	Leeds	8	2	4	2	-2	10
15	Wolves	8	3	1	4	-2	10
16	Brighton	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	Burnley	7	1	4	2	+0	7
18	Newcastle	8	1	4	3	-5	7
19	Watford	8	2	1	5	-7	7
20	Norwich	9	1	2	6	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+19	19
2	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+12	19
3	Man City	8	6	1	1	+9	19
4	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Man United	8	4	2	2	+1	14
6	Wolves	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Brighton	8	2	5	1	+0	11
8	Brentford	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Leicester	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	Aston Villa	9	3	0	6	-5	9
11	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
12	Arsenal	8	2	1	5	-10	7
13	Watford	8	2	0	6	-3	6
14	Crystal Palace	8	1	3	4	-6	6
15	Everton	9	1	3	5	-8	6
16	Southampton	9	1	3	5	-11	6
17	Leeds	9	1	3	5	-13	6
18	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-17	5
19	Burnley	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Newcastle	8	0	3	5	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.