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Premier League
Referee: Andre Marriner
Liverpool
S S S S S
3–1
Full-time
Newcastle
S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
2,8
Scored
2,8
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+0,2
This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 63%
100%
25%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
100%
25%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
3,8
2,0
Scored
3,0
0,8
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+2,3
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

75% Possession 25%
21 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
10 Corners 1
2 Offside 8
5 Free kicks against 4
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Newcastle 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Liverpool 4 4 0 0 +9 12
2 Man City 4 3 1 0 +11 10
3 Leicester 4 2 2 0 +3 8
4 Crystal Palace 4 2 1 1 +1 7
5 Arsenal 4 2 1 1 +0 7
6 Everton 4 2 1 1 +0 7
7 West Ham 4 2 1 1 -1 7
8 Man United 4 1 2 1 +3 5
9 Tottenham 4 1 2 1 +1 5
10 Sheffield United 4 1 2 1 +0 5
11 Chelsea 4 1 2 1 -3 5
12 Burnley 4 1 1 2 -1 4
13 Southampton 4 1 1 2 -2 4
14 Newcastle 4 1 1 2 -2 4
15 Bournemouth 4 1 1 2 -3 4
16 Brighton 4 1 1 2 -3 4
17 Wolves 4 0 3 1 -1 3
18 Aston Villa 4 1 0 3 -2 3
19 Norwich 4 1 0 3 -4 3
20 Watford 4 0 1 3 -6 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Liverpool Newcastle
7′
J. Willems 0–1
C. Atsu
1–1 S. Mané
A. Robertson
28′
Roberto Firmino 🔁
↦ D. Origi
37′
2–1 S. Mané
40′
Half-time 2–1
67′
🔁 Javi Manquillo
↦ E. Krafth
67′
🔁 Y. Muto
↦ M. Almirón
3–1 Mohamed Salah
Roberto Firmino
72′
J. Milner 🔁
↦ A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
75′
80′
🔁 F. Fernández
↦ F. Schär
X. Shaqiri 🔁
↦ G. Wijnaldum
84′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-3-3
13 Adrián G
32 J. Matip D
4 V. van Dijk D
26 A. Robertson D
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
5 G. Wijnaldum M
15 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain M
3 Fabinho M
11 Mohamed Salah F
10 S. Mané F
27 D. Origi F
Bench (7)
9 Roberto Firmino
7 J. Milner
23 X. Shaqiri
20 A. Lallana
14 J. Henderson
12 J. Gomez
62 C. Kelleher

Coach: J. Klopp

Newcastle

5-4-1
1 M. Dúbravka G
5 F. Schär D
15 J. Willems D
17 E. Krafth D
6 J. Lascelles D
3 P. Dummett D
8 J. Shelvey M
30 C. Atsu M
14 I. Hayden M
24 M. Almirón M
9 Joelinton F
Bench (7)
19 Javi Manquillo
13 Y. Muto
18 F. Fernández
2 C. Clark
43 M. Longstaff
26 K. Darlow
4 Ki Sung-Yeung

Coach: S. Bruce

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,15
U
8,27
B
19,45
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,42
U2,5
2,89
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Andre Marriner · 138 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
15,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.