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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Southampton

U T U S U

4–1

Full-time

Brentford

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 27%

21%

32%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 56%

58%

53%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 14. · Brentford 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	21	17	2	2	+40	53
2	Chelsea	21	12	7	2	+29	43
3	Liverpool	20	12	6	2	+34	42
4	Arsenal	20	11	2	7	+8	35
5	West Ham	20	10	4	6	+10	34
6	Tottenham	18	10	3	5	+3	33
7	Man United	19	9	4	6	+3	31
8	Wolves	19	8	4	7	+0	28
9	Brighton	19	6	9	4	+0	27
10	Leicester	18	7	4	7	-2	25
11	Crystal Palace	20	5	8	7	-1	23
12	Brentford	19	6	5	8	-3	23
13	Aston Villa	19	7	1	11	-5	22
14	Southampton	19	4	9	6	-9	21
15	Everton	18	5	4	9	-9	19
16	Leeds	19	4	7	8	-16	19
17	Watford	18	4	1	13	-14	13
18	Burnley	17	1	8	8	-11	11
19	Newcastle	19	1	8	10	-23	11
20	Norwich	19	2	4	13	-34	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	1	1	+25	25
2	Arsenal	10	7	1	2	+10	22
3	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
4	Liverpool	9	6	3	0	+16	21
5	Chelsea	11	5	5	1	+15	20
6	Crystal Palace	11	4	5	2	+8	17
7	Leicester	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Man United	10	5	1	4	+2	16
9	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+3	14
10	Aston Villa	9	4	1	4	+1	13
11	Brentford	10	4	1	5	+0	13
12	Everton	9	4	1	4	-1	13
13	Leeds	10	3	4	3	-3	13
14	Southampton	9	2	6	1	+1	12
15	Brighton	9	3	3	3	-1	12
16	Wolves	9	3	2	4	-2	11
17	Newcastle	10	1	5	4	-9	8
18	Burnley	7	1	4	2	+0	7
19	Watford	10	2	1	7	-11	7
20	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+15	28
2	Chelsea	10	7	2	1	+14	23
3	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+18	21
4	West Ham	11	6	2	3	+7	20
5	Wolves	10	5	2	3	+2	17
6	Man United	9	4	3	2	+1	15
7	Brighton	10	3	6	1	+1	15
8	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
9	Tottenham	8	3	2	3	-3	11
10	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Aston Villa	10	3	0	7	-6	9
13	Southampton	10	2	3	5	-10	9
14	Watford	8	2	0	6	-3	6
15	Everton	9	1	3	5	-8	6
16	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-9	6
17	Leeds	9	1	3	5	-13	6
18	Norwich	9	1	2	6	-20	5
19	Burnley	10	0	4	6	-11	4
20	Newcastle	9	0	3	6	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.