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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Brentford

T U S T T

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 34%

28%

39%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

44%

61%

Both score Ø 53%

50%

56%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%

10 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 7

0 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 14. · Aston Villa 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	21	17	2	2	+40	53
2	Chelsea	20	12	6	2	+29	42
3	Liverpool	19	12	5	2	+34	41
4	Arsenal	20	11	2	7	+8	35
5	West Ham	20	10	4	6	+10	34
6	Tottenham	18	10	3	5	+3	33
7	Man United	18	9	4	5	+4	31
8	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-1	25
9	Leicester	18	7	4	7	-2	25
10	Brighton	18	5	9	4	-1	24
11	Crystal Palace	20	5	8	7	-1	23
12	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-4	22
13	Southampton	19	4	9	6	-9	21
14	Brentford	18	5	5	8	-4	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-8	19
16	Leeds	18	3	7	8	-18	16
17	Watford	18	4	1	13	-14	13
18	Burnley	16	1	8	7	-9	11
19	Newcastle	19	1	8	10	-23	11
20	Norwich	19	2	4	13	-34	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	1	1	+25	25
2	Arsenal	10	7	1	2	+10	22
3	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
4	Liverpool	9	6	3	0	+16	21
5	Chelsea	10	5	4	1	+15	19
6	Crystal Palace	11	4	5	2	+8	17
7	Leicester	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Man United	9	5	1	3	+3	16
9	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+3	14
10	Aston Villa	9	4	1	4	+1	13
11	Everton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
12	Southampton	9	2	6	1	+1	12
13	Brighton	9	3	3	3	-1	12
14	Wolves	9	3	2	4	-2	11
15	Brentford	9	3	1	5	-1	10
16	Leeds	9	2	4	3	-5	10
17	Newcastle	10	1	5	4	-9	8
18	Burnley	7	1	4	2	+0	7
19	Watford	10	2	1	7	-11	7
20	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+15	28
2	Chelsea	10	7	2	1	+14	23
3	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+18	20
4	West Ham	11	6	2	3	+7	20
5	Man United	9	4	3	2	+1	15
6	Wolves	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
8	Brighton	9	2	6	1	+0	12
9	Tottenham	8	3	2	3	-3	11
10	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Aston Villa	9	3	0	6	-5	9
12	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
13	Southampton	10	2	3	5	-10	9
14	Watford	8	2	0	6	-3	6
15	Everton	9	1	3	5	-8	6
16	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-9	6
17	Leeds	9	1	3	5	-13	6
18	Norwich	9	1	2	6	-20	5
19	Burnley	9	0	4	5	-9	4
20	Newcastle	9	0	3	6	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.