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Championship
Referee: Lewis Smith
West Brom
T T S T T
2–1
Full-time
QPR
S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Brom QPR
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
3,3
3,7
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
1,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 39%
35%
43%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
48%
61%
Both score Ø 66%
57%
74%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,1
1,4
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,48 xG 0,14
45% Possession 55%
12 Shots 3
4 Shots on target 0
3 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Corners 4
4 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match West Brom 16. · QPR 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Coventry 24 15 6 3 +29 +19.8 51
2 Ipswich 24 11 8 5 +17 +19.2 41
3 Middlesbrough 21 11 6 4 +6 +5.5 39
4 Preston 23 9 10 4 +7 -4.5 37
5 Bristol City 23 10 6 7 +7 -0.2 36
6 Millwall 22 10 6 6 -4 +0.8 36
7 Watford 23 9 8 6 +4 +6.8 35
8 Hull 21 10 5 6 +3 -10.3 35
9 QPR 23 10 5 8 -2 +3.0 35
10 Stoke 23 10 4 9 +7 -4.2 34
11 Derby 23 8 8 7 +1 -6.2 32
12 Wrexham 23 7 10 6 +2 -6.7 31
13 Leicester 23 8 7 8 -1 -6.2 31
14 Southampton 22 8 6 8 +4 +10.3 30
15 Birmingham 23 8 6 9 +1 +11.0 30
16 West Brom 23 8 4 11 -5 +2.8 28
17 Charlton 22 7 6 9 -6 -9.6 27
18 Blackburn 22 7 5 10 -4 +7.5 26
19 Sheffield United 23 8 2 13 -5 +8.2 26
20 Swansea 23 7 5 11 -7 -7.2 26
21 Oxford 23 5 7 11 -8 -6.4 22
22 Portsmouth 22 5 7 10 -10 -6.4 22
23 Norwich 23 5 6 12 -9 -9.0 21
24 Sheffield Weds 22 1 7 14 -27 -18.1 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

West Brom QPR
1–0 G. Campbell
C. Styles
24′
35′
O. Diakite 2–0
own goal
37′
🟨 Jimmy Dunne
42′
🟨 Kieran Morgan
Half-time 3–0
3–0 N. Phillips
M. Johnston
55′
I. Price 🔁
↦ M. Johnston
67′
J. Maja 🔁
↦ A. Heggebo
67′
73′
🔁 R. Norrington-Davies
↦ Esquerdinha
73′
🔁 I. Hayden
↦ K. Morgan
73′
🔁 K. Dembele
↦ K. Poku
73′
🔁 R. Burrell
↦ J. Varane
J. Molumby 🔁
↦ A. Mowatt
74′
83′
🔁 H. Vale
↦ N. Madsen
C. Mepham 🔁
↦ S. Iling Junior
84′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

West Brom

4-2-3-1
23 J. Wildsmith G
6 G. Campbell D
3 N. Phillips D
29 C. Taylor D
4 C. Styles D
17 O. Diakite M
27 A. Mowatt M
22 S. Iling Junior M
11 M. Johnston M
10 K. Grant M
19 A. Heggebo F
Bench (9)
20 J. Griffiths
2 C. Mepham
5 K. Bielik
8 J. Molumby
21 I. Price
37 O. Bostock
12 D. Dike
9 J. Maja
44 N. Dupont

Coach: Ryan Mason

QPR

4-2-3-1
29 B. Hamer G
21 K. Morgan D
3 J. Dunne D
4 L. Morrison D
28 Esquerdinha D
24 N. Madsen M
40 J. Varane M
17 K. Poku M
8 S. Field M
14 K. Saito M
22 R. Kone F
Bench (9)
1 P. Nardi
5 S. Cook
18 R. Norrington-Davies
15 I. Hayden
20 H. Vale
11 P. Smyth
7 K. Dembele
26 R. Kolli
16 R. Burrell

Coach: Julien Stephan

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,08
U
3,38
B
3,50
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,98
U2,5
1,77
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Lewis Smith · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.