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Serie A

Referee: Marco Di Bello

Roma

T T S S T

3–1

Full-time

Genoa

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

63%

19%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

25%

63%

Both score Ø 44%

25%

63%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,37 xG 0,71

61% Possession 39%

16 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Genoa 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	0	4	+21	+14.3	36
2	Milan	16	10	5	1	+14	+8.0	35
3	Napoli	16	11	1	4	+11	+7.7	34
4	Juventus	17	9	5	3	+8	+10.1	32
5	Roma	16	10	0	6	+7	+0.3	30
6	Como	16	7	6	3	+10	+5.2	27
7	Bologna	16	7	5	4	+10	+2.7	26
8	Lazio	17	6	6	5	+6	-4.3	24
9	Sassuolo	17	6	4	7	+1	-5.4	22
10	Atalanta	17	5	7	5	+1	+6.6	22
11	Udinese	17	6	4	7	-10	-4.5	22
12	Cremonese	17	5	6	6	-2	-8.9	21
13	Torino	17	5	5	7	-11	-3.2	20
14	Cagliari	17	4	6	7	-5	-10.9	18
15	Parma	16	4	5	7	-7	-4.6	17
16	Lecce	16	4	4	8	-11	-6.8	16
17	Genoa	16	3	5	8	-8	+1.5	14
18	Verona	16	2	6	8	-12	-3.2	12
19	Pisa	17	1	8	8	-12	-6.2	11
20	Fiorentina	17	1	6	10	-11	+1.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	9	6	2	1	+7	+5.9	20
2	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+8	+1.6	19
3	Inter	8	6	0	2	+16	+9.8	18
4	Juventus	8	5	3	0	+7	+7.3	18
5	Lazio	8	4	3	1	+8	+2.2	15
6	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
7	Roma	8	5	0	3	+4	+2.0	15
8	Bologna	8	4	2	2	+5	+4.3	14
9	Atalanta	9	3	4	2	+2	+6.7	13
10	Udinese	9	3	3	3	-4	+1.1	12
11	Torino	9	3	2	4	-6	-3.3	11
12	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	+0	-3.1	10
13	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-2	-4.2	9
14	Cremonese	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.6	9
15	Parma	9	2	3	4	-4	-2.9	9
16	Lecce	9	2	3	4	-5	-1.5	9
17	Verona	7	1	3	3	-1	+1.0	6
18	Pisa	9	1	3	5	-6	-2.3	6
19	Genoa	9	1	3	5	-7	+0.8	6
20	Fiorentina	8	1	2	5	-2	+3.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	8	6	0	2	+5	+4.5	18
2	Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	+2.1	15
3	Napoli	9	5	0	4	+3	+6.1	15
4	Roma	8	5	0	3	+3	-1.6	15
5	Juventus	9	4	2	3	+1	+2.8	14
6	Bologna	8	3	3	2	+5	-1.6	12
7	Como	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
8	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	-2.4	12
9	Cremonese	9	3	3	3	+0	-7.3	12
10	Udinese	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.6	10
11	Atalanta	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.1	9
12	Lazio	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.5	9
13	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-6.6	9
14	Torino	8	2	3	3	-5	+0.2	9
15	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.7	8
16	Parma	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.7	8
17	Lecce	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
18	Verona	9	1	3	5	-11	-4.2	6
19	Pisa	8	0	5	3	-6	-3.9	5
20	Fiorentina	9	0	4	5	-9	-1.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.