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Championship

Referee: A Backhouse

Portsmouth

S T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Derby

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portsmouth Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 36/37 matches

Win Ø 35%

28%

41%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

44%

51%

Both score Ø 61%

53%

68%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,72 xG 1,00

68% Possession 32%

27 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

12 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 9

11 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Portsmouth 21. · Derby 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	38	23	8	7	+38	+30.3	77
2	Ipswich	37	19	11	7	+28	+26.6	68
3	Millwall	36	19	8	9	+9	+8.3	65
4	Middlesbrough	35	18	9	8	+15	+18.4	63
5	Wrexham	37	16	12	9	+10	-1.6	60
6	Hull	35	18	6	11	+6	-19.8	60
7	Southampton	35	15	11	9	+16	+15.4	56
8	Derby	37	15	9	13	+6	-0.2	54
9	Birmingham	38	14	11	13	+0	+15.1	53
10	Watford	37	13	13	11	+2	+7.8	52
11	Swansea	38	15	7	16	-2	-4.9	52
12	Norwich	37	15	6	16	+6	-4.5	51
13	Stoke	38	14	9	15	+5	-8.5	51
14	Bristol City	38	14	9	15	+0	-3.8	51
15	Sheffield United	38	15	5	18	+1	+11.8	50
16	QPR	38	14	8	16	-11	-2.4	50
17	Preston	38	12	13	13	-6	-15.5	49
18	Charlton	38	12	12	14	-9	-14.8	48
19	Leicester	38	11	11	16	-9	-17.9	44
20	Blackburn	38	11	9	18	-13	+5.3	42
21	Portsmouth	36	10	10	16	-11	-0.3	40
22	West Brom	38	10	10	18	-15	+6.9	40
23	Oxford	38	9	12	17	-13	-9.9	39
24	Sheffield Weds	38	1	9	28	-53	-41.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	14	3	2	+25	+21.0	45
2	Ipswich	19	12	6	1	+22	+23.7	42
3	Millwall	19	11	3	5	+7	+7.8	36
4	Birmingham	19	9	8	2	+14	+18.8	35
5	Swansea	19	10	5	4	+9	+0.2	35
6	Middlesbrough	18	9	6	3	+9	+9.6	33
7	Wrexham	20	9	6	5	+6	+7.7	33
8	Watford	18	9	5	4	+7	+6.6	32
9	Hull	17	9	3	5	+3	-7.2	30
10	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+12	+10.9	29
11	Stoke	19	8	5	6	+8	+1.3	29
12	West Brom	19	7	7	5	+0	+12.1	28
13	Charlton	18	8	4	6	+0	+0.3	28
14	Sheffield United	18	8	3	7	+8	+13.5	27
15	Derby	19	7	6	6	+1	+1.0	27
16	Preston	19	7	6	6	+0	-4.4	27
17	QPR	18	8	2	8	-1	+6.0	26
18	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	+2	-0.1	25
19	Norwich	19	8	1	10	+0	+1.0	25
20	Leicester	19	7	4	8	-2	-2.9	25
21	Portsmouth	18	6	4	8	+0	+6.3	22
22	Oxford	19	5	7	7	-7	-0.9	22
23	Blackburn	19	4	6	9	-7	+6.7	18
24	Sheffield Weds	20	0	5	15	-31	-20.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	9	5	5	+13	+9.4	32
2	Middlesbrough	17	9	3	5	+6	+8.9	30
3	Hull	18	9	3	6	+3	-12.7	30
4	Millwall	17	8	5	4	+2	+0.5	29
5	Derby	18	8	3	7	+5	-1.2	27
6	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+4	+4.5	27
7	Wrexham	17	7	6	4	+4	-9.3	27
8	Ipswich	18	7	5	6	+6	+2.9	26
9	Norwich	18	7	5	6	+6	-5.5	26
10	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-2	-3.7	26
11	Blackburn	19	7	3	9	-6	-1.5	24
12	QPR	20	6	6	8	-10	-8.4	24
13	Sheffield United	20	7	2	11	-7	-1.7	23
14	Stoke	19	6	4	9	-3	-9.9	22
15	Preston	19	5	7	7	-6	-11.1	22
16	Watford	19	4	8	7	-5	+1.1	20
17	Charlton	20	4	8	8	-9	-15.1	20
18	Leicester	19	4	7	8	-7	-14.9	19
19	Portsmouth	18	4	6	8	-11	-6.7	18
20	Birmingham	19	5	3	11	-14	-3.7	18
21	Oxford	19	4	5	10	-6	-9.0	17
22	Swansea	19	5	2	12	-11	-5.1	17
23	West Brom	19	3	3	13	-15	-5.2	12
24	Sheffield Weds	18	1	4	13	-22	-21.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.