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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Watford

U T U T U

2–0

Full-time

Derby

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 38%

34%

41%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

47%

50%

Both score Ø 66%

63%

69%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,30 xG 0,54

45% Possession 55%

18 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 13. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	33	19	8	6	+32	+25.7	65
2	Millwall	31	16	8	7	+6	+6.7	56
3	Ipswich	30	15	9	6	+22	+24.6	54
4	Middlesbrough	29	16	6	7	+10	+9.3	54
5	Hull	30	15	6	9	+6	-13.6	51
6	Derby	32	13	9	10	+8	-4.1	48
7	Wrexham	32	12	12	8	+5	-2.0	48
8	Preston	33	12	12	9	+3	-10.5	48
9	Bristol City	33	13	8	12	+4	-0.4	47
10	QPR	33	13	8	12	-1	+1.9	47
11	Birmingham	32	12	10	10	+4	+16.2	46
12	Southampton	30	12	9	9	+8	+13.7	45
13	Watford	32	11	12	9	+3	+5.8	45
14	Swansea	33	13	6	14	+0	-3.5	45
15	Stoke	33	12	8	13	+5	-8.5	44
16	Sheffield United	32	13	3	16	+0	+10.0	42
17	Norwich	32	11	6	15	+0	-7.2	39
18	Leicester	33	10	9	14	-7	-13.6	39
19	Charlton	32	10	9	13	-10	-11.8	39
20	Blackburn	33	10	8	15	-10	+3.3	38
21	Portsmouth	31	9	9	13	-10	-1.7	36
22	West Brom	33	9	7	17	-17	+2.5	34
23	Oxford	32	6	10	16	-16	-9.7	28
24	Sheffield Weds	32	1	8	23	-45	-33.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	16	12	3	1	+22	+14.9	39
2	Ipswich	16	10	5	1	+18	+20.1	35
3	Birmingham	16	8	7	1	+15	+18.1	31
4	Swansea	17	9	4	4	+7	+0.5	31
5	Middlesbrough	14	9	3	2	+10	+4.0	30
6	Millwall	15	9	3	3	+6	+8.3	30
7	Watford	16	8	5	3	+7	+5.3	29
8	Preston	17	7	6	4	+4	-1.4	27
9	Hull	16	8	3	5	+1	-4.4	27
10	QPR	16	8	2	6	+5	+9.0	26
11	Southampton	14	7	4	3	+7	+9.2	25
12	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	+5	-0.4	25
13	Charlton	16	7	4	5	+0	-0.8	25
14	Wrexham	16	6	6	4	+2	+6.6	24
15	Sheffield United	15	7	2	6	+8	+10.8	23
16	West Brom	16	6	5	5	-3	+8.0	23
17	Stoke	16	6	4	6	+5	-0.5	22
18	Portsmouth	16	6	4	6	+2	+5.4	22
19	Leicester	16	6	4	6	+0	-0.7	22
20	Derby	17	5	6	6	-2	-1.3	21
21	Blackburn	17	4	5	8	-6	+4.7	17
22	Norwich	15	5	1	9	-4	-0.4	16
23	Oxford	16	3	6	7	-9	-1.4	15
24	Sheffield Weds	17	0	4	13	-27	-16.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	15	8	3	4	+10	-2.8	27
2	Coventry	17	7	5	5	+10	+10.8	26
3	Millwall	16	7	5	4	+0	-1.6	26
4	Hull	14	7	3	4	+5	-9.2	24
5	Wrexham	16	6	6	4	+3	-8.6	24
6	Middlesbrough	15	7	3	5	+0	+5.3	24
7	Norwich	17	6	5	6	+4	-6.7	23
8	Stoke	17	6	4	7	+0	-8.0	22
9	Bristol City	16	6	4	6	-1	+0.1	22
10	Preston	16	5	6	5	-1	-9.0	21
11	Blackburn	16	6	3	7	-4	-1.4	21
12	QPR	17	5	6	6	-6	-7.1	21
13	Southampton	16	5	5	6	+1	+4.4	20
14	Ipswich	14	5	4	5	+4	+4.5	19
15	Sheffield United	17	6	1	10	-8	-0.7	19
16	Leicester	17	4	5	8	-7	-12.9	17
17	Watford	16	3	7	6	-4	+0.4	16
18	Birmingham	16	4	3	9	-11	-1.9	15
19	Swansea	16	4	2	10	-7	-4.0	14
20	Charlton	16	3	5	8	-10	-11.0	14
21	Portsmouth	15	3	5	7	-12	-7.1	14
22	Oxford	16	3	4	9	-7	-8.3	13
23	West Brom	17	3	2	12	-14	-5.5	11
24	Sheffield Weds	15	1	4	10	-18	-17.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.