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League Cup

Referee: R Jones

Coventry

T S T T T

1–3

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T U S T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Coventry Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

42% Possession 58%

15 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fleetwood Town	3	3	0	0	+6	+0.2	9
2	Peterborough	3	2	1	0	+5	–	7
3	Bradford	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.7	7
4	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.5	6
5	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
6	Everton	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
7	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
8	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
9	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.8	6
10	Wolves	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
11	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+3	–	6
12	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
13	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
14	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
15	Barnsley	3	1	2	0	+1	–	5
16	Reading	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.3	4
17	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
18	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
19	Leyton Orient	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
20	Millwall	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
21	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
22	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
23	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.8	3
24	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
25	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
26	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
27	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
28	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
29	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
30	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
31	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
32	Crewe	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
33	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
34	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
35	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
36	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
37	Leeds	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
38	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
39	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
40	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
41	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
42	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
43	Stevenage	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.3	3
44	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
45	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.5	3
46	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
47	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
55	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
57	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
58	Doncaster	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
59	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.8	1
60	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
61	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
62	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
69	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
70	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
71	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
72	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
73	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
74	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
75	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
77	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
78	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
79	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
80	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
81	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
82	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
83	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
84	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
85	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
86	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
87	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
88	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fleetwood Town	3	3	0	0	+6	+0.2	9
2	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
3	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
4	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
5	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
6	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
7	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
10	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
11	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.8	3
12	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
14	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Crewe	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
19	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
21	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
22	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
23	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
24	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
25	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
26	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
27	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
37	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
45	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
48	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
49	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
50	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
51	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
52	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
53	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
54	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
55	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
56	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
57	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
58	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.5	6
2	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
3	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+3	–	6
4	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
5	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
6	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
7	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
13	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
14	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
17	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
18	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
19	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
24	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
25	Leeds	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
26	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
27	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
28	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Doncaster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
35	Leyton Orient	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
37	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
38	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
39	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
45	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
48	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
49	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
50	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
51	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
52	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
53	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
54	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
55	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.