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Coppa Italia
Referee: G Collu
Napoli
T S S S U
5–0
Full-time
Palermo
T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Palermo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
2,2
1,7
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Coppa Italia · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
0,0
1,0
Scored
0,0
1,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

65% Possession 35%
16 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 4
2 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Napoli 20. · Palermo 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Cesena 3 3 0 0 +4 9
2 Udinese 2 2 0 0 +6 6
3 Empoli 2 2 0 0 +4 6
4 Cagliari 2 2 0 0 +3 6
5 Sassuolo 2 2 0 0 +3 6
6 Monza 2 1 1 0 +2 4
7 Genoa 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Pisa 2 1 0 1 +2 3
9 Torino 2 1 0 1 +1 3
10 Palermo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
11 Brescia 2 1 0 1 +0 3
12 Mantova 2 1 0 1 +0 3
13 Carrarese 2 1 0 1 -1 3
14 Lecce 2 1 0 1 -1 3
15 Avellino 2 1 0 1 -2 3
16 Sampdoria 2 0 2 0 +0 2
17 Spezia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
18 Como 1 0 1 0 +0 1
19 Bari 1 0 1 0 +0 1
20 Napoli 1 0 1 0 +0 1
21 Modena 1 0 1 0 +0 1
22 Sudtirol 1 0 1 0 +0 1
23 Cremonese 2 0 1 1 -1 1
24 Salernitana 2 0 1 1 -2 1
25 Cittadella 1 0 0 1 -1 0
26 Verona 1 0 0 1 -1 0
27 Catania 1 0 0 1 -1 0
28 Torres 1 0 0 1 -1 0
29 Parma 1 0 0 1 -1 0
30 Reggiana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
31 Venezia 1 0 0 1 -2 0
32 Padova 1 0 0 1 -2 0
33 Juve Stabia 1 0 0 1 -2 0
34 Cosenza 1 0 0 1 -2 0
35 Catanzaro 1 0 0 1 -3 0
36 Frosinone 1 0 0 1 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Napoli Palermo
1–0 C. Ngonge
G. Raspadori
7′
2–0 C. Ngonge
S. Lobotka
12′
3–0 Juan Jesus
David Neres
42′
Half-time 3–0
A. Zerbin 🔁
↦ C. Ngonge
57′
F. Anguissa 🔁
↦ S. Lobotka
57′
58′
🟥 Aljoša Vasić
63′
🔁 R. Insigne
↦ J. Le Douaron
63′
🔁 C. Gomes
↦ F. Ranocchia
4–0 David Neres
G. Simeone
70′
72′
🔁 F. Lucioni
↦ R. Baniya
72′
🔁 J. Segre
↦ D. Šarić
R. Lukaku 🔁
↦ G. Simeone
76′
K. Kvaratskhelia 🔁
↦ David Neres
76′
S. McTominay 🔁
↦ G. Raspadori
77′
5–0 S. McTominay
R. Lukaku
77′
84′
🔁 N. Pierozzi
↦ K. Lund
Rafa Marín 🟨
86′
Full-time 5–0

Line-ups

Napoli

4-2-3-1
25 E. Caprile G
30 P. Mazzocchi D
16 Rafa Marín D
5 Juan Jesus D
37 L. Spinazzola D
6 B. Gilmour M
68 S. Lobotka M
7 David Neres M
81 G. Raspadori M
26 C. Ngonge M
18 G. Simeone F
Bench (12)
23 A. Zerbin
99 F. Anguissa
11 R. Lukaku
77 K. Kvaratskhelia
8 S. McTominay
12 C. Turi
22 G. Di Lorenzo
4 A. Buongiorno
13 A. Rrahmani
14 N. Contini
21 M. Politano
17 M. Olivera

Coach: A. Conte

Palermo

3-5-2
46 S. Sirigu G
29 P. Peda D
4 R. Baniya D
32 P. Ceccaroni D
25 A. Buttaro M
10 F. Ranocchia M
14 A. Vasić M
30 D. Šarić M
3 K. Lund M
21 J. Le Douaron F
9 M. Brunori F
Bench (12)
11 R. Insigne
6 C. Gomes
5 F. Lucioni
8 J. Segre
27 N. Pierozzi
43 D. Nikolaou
7 F. Di Mariano
12 M. Nespola
20 T. Henry
19 S. Appuah
1 S. Desplanches
23 S. Diakité

Coach: A. Dionisi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

G Collu · 40 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.