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Serie A
Referee: Celi Domenico
Napoli
S U S S S
1–1
Full-time
Palermo
S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Palermo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
4,8
3,0
Scored
3,3
1,0
Conceded
1,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-1,0
This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 36%
62%
10%
Points per game
2,1
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
71%
48%
Both score Ø 65%
67%
62%
Average goals
3,4
2,8
Scored
2,2
0,8
Conceded
1,1
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,1
-1,1
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

75% Possession 25%
19 Shots 3
10 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 9
14 Corners 2
0 Offside 4
6 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Napoli 3. · Palermo 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 21 17 0 4 +28 51
2 Roma 22 15 2 5 +23 47
3 Napoli 21 13 5 3 +23 44
4 Inter 22 13 3 6 +14 42
5 Lazio 22 12 4 6 +10 40
6 Atalanta 22 12 3 7 +9 39
7 Milan 21 11 4 6 +6 37
8 Fiorentina 21 9 7 5 +8 34
9 Torino 22 8 7 7 +7 31
10 Udinese 22 8 4 10 -2 28
11 Chievo 22 8 4 10 -8 28
12 Sampdoria 22 7 6 9 -4 27
13 Bologna 21 7 6 8 -5 27
14 Cagliari 22 8 3 11 -14 27
15 Genoa 22 6 7 9 -5 25
16 Sassuolo 22 7 3 12 -6 24
17 Empoli 22 5 6 11 -17 21
18 Crotone 21 3 4 14 -17 13
19 Palermo 21 2 4 15 -24 10
20 Pescara 21 1 6 14 -26 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Napoli Palermo
6′
I. Nestorovski 0–1
A. Rispoli
23′
🟨 Robin Quaison
32′
🟨 Bruno Henrique
Half-time 0–1
P. Zieliński 🔁
↦ Allan
54′
60′
🔁 H. Aleesami
↦ A. Trajkovski
L. Pavoletti 🔁
↦ Jorginho
63′
65′
🟨 Mato Jajalo
1–1 D. Mertens
P. Zieliński
66′
88′
🔁 M. Morganella
↦ R. Quaison
90′
🟨 Giancarlo González
90′
🟥 Edoardo Goldaniga
92′
🔁 T. Šunjić
↦ I. Nestorovski
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Napoli

4-3-3
25 Pepe Reina G
33 Albiol D
19 N. Maksimović D
2 E. Hysaj D
31 F. Ghoulam D
17 M. Hamšík M
5 Allan M
8 Jorginho M
14 D. Mertens F
7 José Callejón F
24 L. Insigne F
Bench (10)
20 P. Zieliński
32 L. Pavoletti
1 Rafael
4 E. Giaccherini
11 C. Maggio
21 V. Chiricheș
22 L. Sepe
23 M. Gabbiadini
30 M. Rog
42 A. Diawara

Coach: M. Sarri

Palermo

4-3-3
1 J. Posavec G
3 A. Rispoli M
12 G. González D
6 E. Goldaniga D
97 G. Pezzella M
28 M. Jajalo M
25 Bruno Henrique M
18 I. Chochev M
21 R. Quaison F
30 I. Nestorovski F
8 A. Trajkovski F
Bench (11)
19 H. Aleesami
89 M. Morganella
44 T. Šunjić
4 S. Anđelković
9 S. Silva
11 Carlos Embalo
15 T. Cionek
22 N. Balogh
55 L. Marson
57 S. Guddo
98 S. Lo Faso

Coach: D. López

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Celi Domenico · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
10,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.