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Coppa Italia

Referee: Paride Tremolada

Bologna

U S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Parma

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

72% Possession 28%

16 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Como	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Torino	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Cagliari	3	1	2	0	+3	5
7	Virtus Entella	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Parma	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Audace Cerignola	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Venezia	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Inter	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Vicenza	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Pescara	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	Spezia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Napoli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Reggiana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Palermo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
28	Empoli	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Rimini	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Bari	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Mantova	1	0	0	1	-4	0
40	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Como	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Torino	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Parma	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Audace Cerignola	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Inter	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Venezia	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Virtus Entella	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Pescara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Napoli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Verona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vicenza	2	1	0	1	-1	3
2	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-2	3
3	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
4	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Reggiana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Verona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Palermo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
10	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Venezia	2	0	1	1	-4	1
12	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Rimini	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Bari	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-3	0
24	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
25	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-4	0
26	Mantova	1	0	0	1	-4	0
27	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.