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Serie A

Referee: Valerio Crezzini

Roma

T S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Parma

U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

1,3

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

75%

13%

Points per game

2,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 13%

13%

Both score Ø 19%

13%

25%

Average goals

1,4

1,3

Scored

1,0

0,4

Conceded

0,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,01 xG 1,21

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 3. · Parma 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	9	7	0	2	+8	+4.1	21
2	Milan	9	5	3	1	+7	+3.6	18
3	Roma	8	6	0	2	+5	+3.0	18
4	Inter	8	5	0	3	+8	+8.2	15
5	Bologna	8	4	2	2	+6	+0.5	14
6	Atalanta	9	2	7	0	+6	+5.7	13
7	Como	8	3	4	1	+4	+2.1	13
8	Juventus	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.2	12
9	Udinese	8	3	3	2	-2	+0.7	12
10	Lazio	8	3	2	3	+4	-2.0	11
11	Cremonese	8	2	5	1	-1	-4.9	11
12	Torino	8	3	2	3	-6	-3.1	11
13	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	-1	-3.6	10
14	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-2	-7.3	9
15	Parma	8	1	4	3	-4	-1.6	7
16	Lecce	9	1	3	5	-7	-4.3	6
17	Verona	8	0	5	3	-7	+0.9	5
18	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-5	+0.3	4
19	Pisa	8	0	4	4	-7	-5.1	4
20	Genoa	8	0	3	5	-7	+1.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+5	-0.2	12
2	Milan	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.4	10
3	Inter	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
4	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.1	9
5	Como	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.0	8
6	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
7	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.0	7
8	Atalanta	5	1	4	0	+3	+5.9	7
9	Torino	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.8	7
10	Cremonese	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.8	6
11	Roma	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.8	6
12	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
13	Parma	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.7	5
14	Udinese	4	1	2	1	-2	+1.4	5
15	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-4.2	4
16	Verona	4	0	3	1	-1	+3.0	3
17	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.7	2
18	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-4	-1.7	2
19	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-4	+2.4	2
20	Fiorentina	4	0	1	3	-4	+0.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	4	4	0	0	+4	+1.3	12
2	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+3	+4.4	9
3	Milan	4	2	2	0	+5	+2.3	8
4	Udinese	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.7	7
5	Atalanta	4	1	3	0	+3	-0.3	6
6	Inter	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.8	6
7	Bologna	5	1	2	2	+0	-4.5	5
8	Cagliari	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.1	5
9	Como	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
10	Cremonese	4	1	2	1	-2	-6.7	5
11	Lazio	4	1	1	2	+0	-4.0	4
12	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.4	4
13	Juventus	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.5	4
14	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.5	4
15	Torino	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
16	Fiorentina	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.2	3
17	Parma	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.3	2
18	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.5	2
19	Verona	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.1	2
20	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-3	-0.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.