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KNVB Beker

Heerenveen

T S S S U

3–1

Full-time

Waalwijk

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

5,8

Scored

2,0

3,5

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — KNVB Beker · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,0

7,0

Scored

3,0

6,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+5,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,17 xG 1,22

70% Possession 30%

22 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 15. · Waalwijk 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Telstar	3	3	0	0	+10	–	9
2	Twente	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.4	9
3	De Treffers	3	3	0	0	+6	+0.0	9
4	Hoogeveen	4	3	0	1	+4	–	9
5	Hoek	4	3	0	1	+1	–	9
6	Hsc 21	4	3	0	1	-1	-2.7	9
7	Heracles	3	2	1	0	+6	–	7
8	Sportlust '46	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.0	7
9	SC Genemuiden	4	2	1	1	+0	–	7
10	Waalwijk	2	2	0	0	+10	+2.7	6
11	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+8	–	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	2	2	0	0	+7	+0.2	6
13	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
14	Eemdijk	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
15	Heerenveen	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
16	Spakenburg	3	2	0	1	+3	-1.4	6
17	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
18	Volendam	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
19	Halsteren	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
20	Capelle	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
21	Almere City	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
22	Dovo	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
23	ROHDA Raalte	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
24	Gemert	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
25	Excelsior Maassluis	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
26	GVVV Veenendaal	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
27	Sparta Nijkerk	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
28	FC Lisse	3	2	0	1	-1	–	6
29	Roda	2	1	1	0	+4	–	4
30	Barendrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
31	Den Bosch	3	1	1	1	-2	–	4
32	Willem II	2	1	0	1	+3	-0.2	3
33	Kozakken Boys	2	1	0	1	+3	–	3
34	Excelsior '31	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
35	Kloetinge	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
36	Hercules	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
37	Koninklijke HFC	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
38	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
39	ASWH	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
40	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.0	3
41	UDI '19	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
42	Roosendaal	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
43	DVS 33 Ermelo	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
44	Meerssen	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
45	't Zand	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
46	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
47	TEC	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
48	Noordwijk	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
49	HHC	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
50	FC OSS	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
51	Ajax	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
52	AFC Amsterdam	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
53	HZVV	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
54	SVV Scheveningen	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
55	URK	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
56	ARC	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
57	Groene Ster	2	0	2	0	+0	–	2
58	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	2	0	+0	–	2
59	Den Haag	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
60	Heino	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
61	De Foresters	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
62	Vitesse	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
63	VVOG	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
64	VV Scherpenzeel	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
65	Katwijk	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
66	Blauw Geel	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
67	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
69	FC Eindhoven	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
70	Poortugaal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
71	Rijnsburgse Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
72	Quick Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
73	Huizen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
74	UNA	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
75	Vvsb	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
76	Zwaluwen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
77	Harkemase Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
78	Westlandia	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
79	Ijsselmeervogels	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
80	Excelsior	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
81	Rijnvogels	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
82	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
83	Aalsmeer	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
84	Mierlo-Hout	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
85	TOGB	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
86	MVV	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
87	ACV	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
88	Walcheren	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
89	ADO '20	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
90	Staphorst	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
91	SteDoCo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
92	AWC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
93	Juliana '31	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
94	RKAV Volendam	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
95	Groningen	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
96	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
97	Sportclub 25	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
98	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
99	Hollandia	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
100	VVV Venlo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
101	DVO	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
102	Olde Veste '54	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
103	FC Emmen	2	0	0	2	-4	–	0
104	GOES	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
105	Kampong	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
106	Dongen	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
107	Erp	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
108	Velocitas	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0
109	Dordrecht	1	0	0	1	-7	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoek	4	3	0	1	+1	–	9
2	Hoogeveen	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
3	De Treffers	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
4	Eemdijk	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
5	Halsteren	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
6	ROHDA Raalte	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
7	FC Lisse	3	2	0	1	-1	–	6
8	Hsc 21	3	2	0	1	-4	-2.7	6
9	Sportlust '46	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.0	4
10	Den Bosch	3	1	1	1	-2	–	4
11	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+6	–	3
12	Koninklijke HFC	1	1	0	0	+5	–	3
13	Willem II	2	1	0	1	+3	-0.2	3
14	Kozakken Boys	2	1	0	1	+3	–	3
15	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
16	Heracles	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
17	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
18	Kloetinge	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
19	Hercules	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
20	GVVV Veenendaal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
21	't Zand	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
22	Volendam	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
23	SVV Scheveningen	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
24	Spakenburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.4	3
25	Waalwijk	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
26	TEC	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
27	Dovo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
28	SC Genemuiden	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
29	Capelle	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
30	Gemert	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
31	Sparta Nijkerk	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
32	Excelsior Maassluis	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
33	Heino	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	De Foresters	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Roda	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
37	Groene Ster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
38	Katwijk	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
39	Blauw Geel	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
40	VV Scherpenzeel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Rijnsburgse Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
45	Quick Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	UNA	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Vvsb	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
48	Zwaluwen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	Harkemase Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
50	Ijsselmeervogels	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
51	UDI '19	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
52	Meerssen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
53	Roosendaal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	Aalsmeer	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
55	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
56	Almere City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
57	TOGB	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	AFC Amsterdam	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
59	Walcheren	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
60	ADO '20	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
61	Noordwijk	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
62	SteDoCo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
63	FC OSS	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	HHC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
65	AWC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	Juliana '31	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	FC Emmen	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
68	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
69	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
70	VVV Venlo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
71	Olde Veste '54	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
72	HZVV	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
73	Erp	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Telstar	3	3	0	0	+10	–	9
2	Twente	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.4	9
3	Heerenveen	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
4	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
5	Almere City	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
6	Heracles	2	1	1	0	+3	–	4
7	Barendrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
8	SC Genemuiden	3	1	1	1	-1	–	4
9	Waalwijk	1	1	0	0	+9	+2.7	3
10	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.2	3
11	Roda	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
12	Excelsior Maassluis	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
13	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
14	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
15	Hsc 21	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
16	Excelsior '31	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
17	HZVV	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
18	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
19	UDI '19	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
20	Spakenburg	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
21	Noordwijk	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
22	Roosendaal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
23	HHC	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
24	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
25	FC OSS	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
26	Meerssen	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
27	ASWH	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
28	Volendam	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
29	Capelle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
30	DVS 33 Ermelo	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
31	AFC Amsterdam	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
32	De Treffers	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
33	Sparta Nijkerk	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
34	For Sittard	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
35	Sportlust '46	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
36	Gemert	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
37	Dovo	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
38	Ajax	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
39	Hoogeveen	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
40	URK	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
41	GVVV Veenendaal	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
42	ARC	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
43	Den Haag	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	Groene Ster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
45	VV Scherpenzeel	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Vitesse	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	VVOG	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Kloetinge	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
50	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
51	FC Eindhoven	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
52	Poortugaal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
53	Katwijk	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	Huizen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
55	Blauw Geel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
56	TEC	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
57	Westlandia	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	Excelsior	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	Halsteren	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	FC Emmen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Rijnvogels	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
62	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
63	Mierlo-Hout	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	MVV	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
65	't Zand	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	ACV	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	Staphorst	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	RKAV Volendam	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
69	Groningen	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
70	Sportclub 25	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
71	Hollandia	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
72	Koninklijke HFC	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
73	DVO	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
74	SVV Scheveningen	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
75	GOES	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
76	Kampong	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
77	Dongen	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
78	Velocitas	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0
79	Dordrecht	1	0	0	1	-7	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.