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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Hélder Carvalho

Porto

S S T S S

4–0

Full-time

Montalegre

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Montalegre

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/3 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Porto 50. · Montalegre 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Montalegre	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	FC Serpa	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
5	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Mafra	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Tondela	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	6
11	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
12	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	Academica	3	2	0	1	+3	6
14	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
16	Vizela	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Torreense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
19	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+1	6
20	Sintrense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
21	Pêro Pinheiro	3	1	2	0	+1	5
22	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
23	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
24	Canelas 2010	2	1	1	0	+5	4
25	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
26	Penafiel	2	1	1	0	+3	4
27	Tirsense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
28	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
29	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
30	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
31	Leixoes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
33	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
34	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
35	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
36	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
37	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+5	3
38	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
39	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
40	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
41	Moncarapachense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
44	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
45	Vila Meã	2	1	0	1	+2	3
46	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
47	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
48	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+2	3
49	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
50	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
51	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
52	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	AVS	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	Academico Viseu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
68	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
69	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	-2	3
72	Camacha	2	1	0	1	-2	3
73	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Santa Maria FC	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
77	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
78	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
79	Atlético Malveira	2	0	2	0	+0	2
80	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
81	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
90	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
91	Oliveirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
92	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
93	SC Covilha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
94	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
95	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
130	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
131	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
137	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
138	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
139	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
140	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
141	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
142	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
143	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
144	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
145	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
146	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Canelas 2010	2	1	1	0	+5	4
5	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
9	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
10	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
11	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
12	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Moncarapachense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
17	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
18	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
35	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
36	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
37	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
38	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
39	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
40	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
41	Pêro Pinheiro	2	0	2	0	+0	2
42	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Leixoes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
50	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
51	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-5	0
86	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
87	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
88	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
89	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
90	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
91	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
2	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Tirsense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	FC Serpa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
10	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
16	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	AVS	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
52	Santa Maria FC	2	1	0	1	-2	3
53	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
54	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
93	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
94	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
95	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
96	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
97	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
98	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.