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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Ruben Cardoso

Montalegre

S S T S U

2–1

Full-time

Pevidem

S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montalegre Pevidem

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 68%

60%

75%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

60%

25%

Both score Ø 33%

40%

25%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

This season — Taça de Portugal · 2/1 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Montalegre 16. · Pevidem 55. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
3	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Torreense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Sintrense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
13	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
14	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
15	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
16	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
19	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
21	Leixoes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
22	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
23	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
24	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
25	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
27	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
28	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
29	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
30	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
31	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
32	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
33	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
34	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
35	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
37	Vila Meã	2	1	0	1	+2	3
38	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
43	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
45	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
46	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
47	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
57	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
58	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
59	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
63	Academico Viseu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
64	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
68	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
69	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
72	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
73	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
74	Atlético Malveira	2	0	2	0	+0	2
75	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
76	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
86	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
87	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
88	SC Covilha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
89	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
90	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
131	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
132	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
133	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
134	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
135	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
136	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
137	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
138	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
139	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
140	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
4	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
7	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
9	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
13	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
32	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
33	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Leixoes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
42	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
43	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
76	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
77	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
78	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
79	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
80	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
2	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
8	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
13	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
49	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
50	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
83	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
85	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
86	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
87	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
88	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
89	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.