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Bundesliga
Referee: T Stieler
Dortmund
S S S S S
0–1
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,7
4,5
Scored
2,5
3,7
Conceded
0,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+2,8
This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 67%
63%
70%
Points per game
2,1
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 81%
81%
81%
Both score Ø 56%
52%
59%
Average goals
4,0
4,0
Scored
2,7
3,0
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%
13 Shots 13
5 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 3
3 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Bayern Munich 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 27 19 4 4 +52 61
2 Dortmund 27 17 6 4 +41 57
3 RB Leipzig 27 15 9 3 +41 54
4 Leverkusen 27 16 5 6 +20 53
5 M'gladbach 27 16 4 7 +19 52
6 Wolfsburg 27 10 9 8 +3 39
7 Freiburg 27 10 7 10 -2 37
8 Schalke 04 27 9 10 8 -10 37
9 Hoffenheim 27 10 6 11 -11 36
10 FC Koln 27 10 4 13 -6 34
11 Hertha 27 9 7 11 -9 34
12 Augsburg 27 8 6 13 -14 30
13 Union Berlin 27 9 3 15 -15 30
14 Ein Frankfurt 26 8 4 14 -8 28
15 Mainz 27 8 3 16 -24 27
16 Fortuna Dusseldorf 27 5 9 13 -23 24
17 Werder Bremen 26 5 6 15 -30 21
18 Paderborn 27 4 6 17 -24 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Bayern Munich
M. Hummels 🟨
13′
43′
J. Kimmich 0–1
Half-time 0–1
J. Brandt 🔁
↦ J. Sancho
46′
T. Delaney 🔁
↦ E. Can
46′
66′
🟨 T. Muller
M. Dahoud 🟨
67′
E. Haaland 🔁
↦ G. Reyna
72′
73′
🔁 K. Coman
↦ I. Perisic
74′
🟨 A. Davies
L. Piszczek 🔁
↦ M. Gotze
80′
85′
🔁 J. Boateng
↦ L. Hernandez
M. Dahoud 🔁
↦ A. Witsel
85′
87′
🔁 S. Gnabry
↦ J. Martinez
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Dortmund

3-4-2-1
1 Roman Bürki G
26 Łukasz Piszczek D
15 Mats Hummels D
16 Manuel Akanji D
5 Achraf Hakimi M
6 Thomas Delaney M
8 Mahmoud Dahoud M
13 Raphaël Guerreiro M
23 Thorgan Hazard F
19 Julian Brandt F
17 Erling Braut Haaland F
Bench (9)
35 Marwin Hitz
29 Marcel Schmelzer
22 Mateu Morey
18 Leonardo Balerdi
28 Axel Witsel
32 Giovanni Reyna
10 Mario Götze
27 Emre Can
7 Jadon Sancho

Coach: L. Favre

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 Manuel Neuer G
5 Benjamin Pavard D
17 Jérôme Boateng D
27 David Alaba D
19 Alphonso Davies D
32 Joshua Kimmich M
18 Leon Goretzka M
29 Kingsley Coman M
25 Thomas Müller M
22 Serge Gnabry M
9 Robert Lewandowski F
Bench (9)
26 Sven Ulreich
2 Álvaro Odriozola
8 Javi Martínez
33 Lars Lukas Mai
21 Lucas Hernández
35 Joshua Zirkzee
11 Michaël Cuisance
14 Ivan Perišić
34 Oliver Batista Meier

Coach: H. Flick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,63
U
4,17
B ✓
1,89
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,37
U2,5 ✓
3,05
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.