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Bundesliga

Referee: Sven Jablonski

Mainz

U U S U U

2–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 13%

19%

Points per game

0,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

44%

75%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,39 xG 1,55

42% Possession 58%

13 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 18. · Heidenheim 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	14	2	0	+51	+36.0	44
2	Dortmund	16	9	6	1	+14	+8.7	33
3	Stuttgart	17	10	2	5	+7	+3.9	32
4	RB Leipzig	15	9	2	4	+11	+7.3	29
5	Leverkusen	16	9	2	5	+10	+9.4	29
6	Hoffenheim	15	8	3	4	+9	+0.4	27
7	Ein Frankfurt	17	7	5	5	-1	+0.1	26
8	Freiburg	16	6	5	5	+0	+6.5	23
9	Union Berlin	16	6	4	6	-3	-0.2	22
10	M'gladbach	16	5	4	7	-2	-1.0	19
11	FC Koln	16	4	5	7	-2	-2.1	17
12	Werder Bremen	15	4	5	6	-10	-8.7	17
13	Hamburg	16	4	4	8	-10	-6.1	16
14	Wolfsburg	16	4	3	9	-12	-7.2	15
15	Augsburg	16	4	2	10	-15	-11.1	14
16	St Pauli	15	3	3	9	-13	-11.1	12
17	Heidenheim	16	3	3	10	-21	-11.4	12
18	Mainz	16	1	6	9	-13	-13.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+32	+18.9	25
2	Stuttgart	8	6	1	1	+2	+1.5	19
3	RB Leipzig	7	6	0	1	+13	+6.3	18
4	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+9	+5.7	17
5	Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+9	+9.7	16
6	Freiburg	8	4	3	1	+6	+9.0	15
7	Hamburg	8	4	2	2	+4	+1.5	14
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+3	+3.3	14
9	Union Berlin	9	3	4	2	+2	+2.3	13
10	Hoffenheim	7	4	0	3	+4	+0.1	12
11	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	-4	+0.6	11
12	Augsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.7	10
13	M'gladbach	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.8	9
14	Heidenheim	9	2	3	4	-9	-7.0	9
15	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	+3	+3.0	8
16	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-7	-3.3	7
17	Wolfsburg	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.1	5
18	Mainz	8	0	3	5	-6	-2.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+19	+17.2	19
2	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+5	+3.0	16
3	Hoffenheim	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.3	15
4	Stuttgart	9	4	1	4	+5	+2.4	13
5	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+1	-0.3	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-4	-3.3	12
7	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
8	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+3	+2.8	10
9	Wolfsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	-3.1	10
10	FC Koln	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.1	9
11	Union Berlin	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.5	9
12	Freiburg	8	2	2	4	-6	-2.6	8
13	Werder Bremen	8	1	3	4	-6	-9.3	6
14	Mainz	8	1	3	4	-7	-10.8	6
15	St Pauli	8	1	2	5	-6	-7.8	5
16	Augsburg	8	1	1	6	-9	-5.4	4
17	Heidenheim	7	1	0	6	-12	-4.4	3
18	Hamburg	8	0	2	6	-14	-7.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.