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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Elversberg

U S S S U

1–2

Full-time

Heidenheim

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elversberg Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/35 matches

Win Ø 12%

23%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

100%

57%

Both score Ø 70%

100%

40%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

2,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

8 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	34	25	7	2	+67	+55.4	82
2	Leverkusen	34	19	12	3	+29	+21.3	69
3	Ein Frankfurt	34	17	9	8	+22	+16.5	60
4	Dortmund	34	17	6	11	+20	+19.8	57
5	Freiburg	34	16	7	11	-4	+1.2	55
6	Mainz	34	14	10	10	+12	+1.3	52
7	RB Leipzig	34	13	12	9	+5	-8.7	51
8	Werder Bremen	34	14	9	11	-3	+2.8	51
9	Stuttgart	34	14	8	12	+11	+16.7	50
10	M'gladbach	34	13	6	15	-2	-11.7	45
11	Wolfsburg	34	11	10	13	+2	-4.5	43
12	Augsburg	34	11	10	13	-16	-15.2	43
13	Union Berlin	34	10	11	13	-14	-11.3	41
14	St Pauli	34	8	8	18	-13	-11.5	32
15	Hoffenheim	34	7	11	16	-22	-14.7	32
16	Heidenheim	35	8	6	21	-27	-15.7	30
17	Holstein Kiel	34	6	7	21	-31	-20.8	25
18	Bochum	34	5	8	21	-36	-20.9	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	14	2	1	+37	+34.8	44
2	Dortmund	17	11	3	3	+25	+17.8	36
3	Ein Frankfurt	17	10	4	3	+19	+17.8	34
4	Leverkusen	17	10	4	3	+14	+16.3	34
5	RB Leipzig	17	8	6	3	+10	+1.7	30
6	Freiburg	17	9	3	5	+6	+0.7	30
7	Mainz	17	6	8	3	+6	+6.8	26
8	M'gladbach	17	7	3	7	+3	-1.6	24
9	Stuttgart	17	7	2	8	+8	+15.7	23
10	Augsburg	17	6	5	6	-2	+3.5	23
11	Union Berlin	17	5	7	5	-3	+1.4	22
12	Werder Bremen	17	5	6	6	-5	+4.9	21
13	Hoffenheim	17	4	5	8	-11	-4.5	17
14	Wolfsburg	17	3	7	7	-3	-0.3	16
15	St Pauli	17	3	5	9	-9	-1.5	14
16	Holstein Kiel	17	4	2	11	-17	-7.0	14
17	Bochum	17	3	4	10	-17	-3.5	13
18	Heidenheim	18	3	3	12	-20	-7.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	11	5	1	+30	+20.6	38
2	Leverkusen	17	9	8	0	+15	+5.0	35
3	Werder Bremen	17	9	3	5	+2	-2.1	30
4	Wolfsburg	17	8	3	6	+5	-4.3	27
5	Stuttgart	17	7	6	4	+3	+1.0	27
6	Mainz	17	8	2	7	+6	-5.6	26
7	Ein Frankfurt	17	7	5	5	+3	-1.2	26
8	Freiburg	17	7	4	6	-10	+0.5	25
9	Dortmund	17	6	3	8	-5	+1.9	21
10	M'gladbach	17	6	3	8	-5	-10.1	21
11	RB Leipzig	17	5	6	6	-5	-10.4	21
12	Augsburg	17	5	5	7	-14	-18.7	20
13	Union Berlin	17	5	4	8	-11	-12.7	19
14	St Pauli	17	5	3	9	-4	-10.0	18
15	Heidenheim	17	5	3	9	-7	-7.9	18
16	Hoffenheim	17	3	6	8	-11	-10.2	15
17	Holstein Kiel	17	2	5	10	-14	-13.8	11
18	Bochum	17	2	4	11	-19	-17.4	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.