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Bundesliga

Referee: T Welz

Stuttgart

T S S T U

0–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,5

2,5

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 29%

37%

20%

Points per game

1,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

73%

57%

Both score Ø 55%

70%

40%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,90 xG 0,53

70% Possession 30%

19 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stuttgart 11. · Heidenheim 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	22	6	2	+58	+52.3	72
2	Leverkusen	30	18	10	2	+29	+22.5	64
3	Ein Frankfurt	30	15	7	8	+16	+12.7	52
4	RB Leipzig	30	13	10	7	+10	-4.5	49
5	Freiburg	30	14	6	10	-4	+0.0	48
6	Mainz	30	13	8	9	+12	-0.8	47
7	Dortmund	30	13	6	11	+10	+16.3	45
8	Werder Bremen	30	13	6	11	-6	+1.2	45
9	M'gladbach	30	13	5	12	+2	-7.7	44
10	Augsburg	30	11	10	9	-7	-13.3	43
11	Stuttgart	30	11	8	11	+6	+7.6	41
12	Wolfsburg	30	10	9	11	+6	-1.8	39
13	Union Berlin	30	9	9	12	-12	-8.5	36
14	St Pauli	30	8	6	16	-10	-6.9	30
15	Hoffenheim	30	7	9	14	-17	-13.3	30
16	Heidenheim	30	6	4	20	-28	-13.7	22
17	Holstein Kiel	30	4	7	19	-30	-19.3	19
18	Bochum	30	4	6	20	-35	-22.8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	12	2	1	+32	+33.3	38
2	Leverkusen	15	9	4	2	+14	+15.2	31
3	Dortmund	15	9	3	3	+18	+14.5	30
4	Ein Frankfurt	15	9	3	3	+15	+15.2	30
5	RB Leipzig	15	8	5	2	+11	+3.8	29
6	Freiburg	15	9	2	4	+8	+1.6	29
7	Mainz	15	6	6	3	+6	+4.9	24
8	M'gladbach	15	7	2	6	+4	-0.4	23
9	Augsburg	15	6	5	4	+1	+1.6	23
10	Union Berlin	15	5	6	4	+0	+2.1	21
11	Stuttgart	15	6	2	7	+5	+10.6	20
12	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-5	+3.9	19
13	Hoffenheim	15	4	5	6	-6	-2.3	17
14	Wolfsburg	15	3	6	6	-2	+1.5	15
15	St Pauli	15	3	5	7	-6	+1.6	14
16	Bochum	15	3	3	9	-14	-4.2	12
17	Holstein Kiel	15	3	2	10	-17	-8.2	11
18	Heidenheim	15	3	1	11	-17	-6.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	10	4	1	+26	+18.9	34
2	Leverkusen	15	9	6	0	+15	+7.3	33
3	Werder Bremen	15	8	2	5	-1	-2.7	26
4	Wolfsburg	15	7	3	5	+8	-3.3	24
5	Mainz	15	7	2	6	+6	-5.7	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+1	-2.5	22
7	Stuttgart	15	5	6	4	+1	-3.1	21
8	M'gladbach	15	6	3	6	-2	-7.3	21
9	RB Leipzig	15	5	5	5	-1	-8.3	20
10	Augsburg	15	5	5	5	-8	-14.9	20
11	Freiburg	15	5	4	6	-12	-1.5	19
12	St Pauli	15	5	1	9	-4	-8.5	16
13	Dortmund	15	4	3	8	-8	+1.8	15
14	Union Berlin	15	4	3	8	-12	-10.5	15
15	Hoffenheim	15	3	4	8	-11	-11.0	13
16	Heidenheim	15	3	3	9	-11	-7.2	12
17	Holstein Kiel	15	1	5	9	-13	-11.1	8
18	Bochum	15	1	3	11	-21	-18.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.