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Premier League

Referee: Graham Scott

Arsenal

U U T U U

1–2

Full-time

Brighton

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

57%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 9

7 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 10. · Brighton 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	14	1	0	+23	43
2	Leicester	15	11	2	2	+26	35
3	Man City	15	10	2	3	+26	32
4	Chelsea	15	9	2	4	+9	29
5	Wolves	15	5	8	2	+4	23
6	Man United	15	5	6	4	+5	21
7	Crystal Palace	15	6	3	6	-4	21
8	Tottenham	15	5	5	5	+2	20
9	Sheffield United	15	4	7	4	+2	19
10	Arsenal	14	4	7	3	-1	19
11	Newcastle	15	5	4	6	-7	19
12	Burnley	15	5	3	7	-3	18
13	Bournemouth	15	4	4	7	-3	16
14	West Ham	15	4	4	7	-8	16
15	Aston Villa	15	4	3	8	-2	15
16	Brighton	14	4	3	7	-5	15
17	Southampton	15	4	3	8	-16	15
18	Everton	15	4	2	9	-11	14
19	Norwich	15	3	2	10	-16	11
20	Watford	15	1	5	9	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	8	0	0	+15	24
2	Leicester	8	7	1	0	+14	22
3	Man City	7	5	1	1	+15	16
4	Man United	8	4	3	1	+7	15
5	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+7	14
6	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Arsenal	7	3	4	0	+3	13
8	Wolves	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Burnley	8	4	0	4	-1	12
10	Aston Villa	7	3	2	2	+3	11
11	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-1	11
13	Newcastle	7	2	4	1	+1	10
14	Sheffield United	8	3	1	4	+0	10
15	Everton	7	3	1	3	-2	10
16	Bournemouth	7	2	3	2	+0	9
17	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Norwich	7	2	1	4	-6	7
19	Southampton	8	2	1	5	-14	7
20	Watford	7	0	3	4	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+8	19
2	Man City	8	5	1	2	+11	16
3	Chelsea	7	5	0	2	+5	15
4	Leicester	7	4	1	2	+12	13
5	Wolves	7	2	4	1	+2	10
6	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	-3	10
7	Sheffield United	7	1	6	0	+2	9
8	West Ham	8	2	3	3	-4	9
9	Newcastle	8	3	0	5	-8	9
10	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Bournemouth	8	2	1	5	-3	7
12	Burnley	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Man United	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	Arsenal	7	1	3	3	-4	6
15	Tottenham	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Watford	8	1	2	5	-12	5
17	Aston Villa	8	1	1	6	-5	4
18	Brighton	7	1	1	5	-7	4
19	Everton	8	1	1	6	-9	4
20	Norwich	8	1	1	6	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.