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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Brighton

S S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 47%

33%

61%

Points per game

1,2

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

56%

78%

Average goals

2,6

3,6

Scored

1,1

2,2

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

32% Possession 68%

12 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 13. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	16	3	0	+36	51
2	Tottenham	19	15	0	4	+24	45
3	Man City	19	14	2	3	+36	44
4	Chelsea	18	11	4	3	+20	37
5	Arsenal	18	11	4	3	+16	37
6	Man United	19	9	5	5	+6	32
7	Leicester	19	8	4	7	+2	28
8	Everton	19	7	6	6	+2	27
9	Watford	18	8	3	7	+0	27
10	Wolves	19	7	5	7	-2	26
11	Bournemouth	19	8	2	9	-6	26
12	West Ham	18	7	3	8	-2	24
13	Brighton	18	6	3	9	-6	21
14	Crystal Palace	19	5	4	10	-8	19
15	Newcastle	19	4	5	10	-12	17
16	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-14	15
17	Cardiff	19	4	3	12	-20	15
18	Burnley	19	3	3	13	-24	12
19	Fulham	19	2	5	12	-26	11
20	Huddersfield	19	2	4	13	-22	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	0	1	+26	27
2	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+20	25
3	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
4	Chelsea	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+11	18
6	Man United	9	5	3	1	+5	18
7	Everton	10	5	3	2	+3	18
8	Bournemouth	10	5	2	3	+2	17
9	Watford	9	5	0	4	-1	15
10	Brighton	8	4	2	2	+3	14
11	Leicester	9	4	2	3	+3	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-2	13
14	Cardiff	10	4	1	5	-7	13
15	Crystal Palace	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Fulham	9	2	3	4	-8	9
17	Southampton	8	1	5	2	-3	8
18	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-8	7
19	Burnley	9	2	1	6	-10	7
20	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	0	2	+13	27
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Man City	9	5	2	2	+10	17
4	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+9	16
5	Arsenal	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Man United	10	4	2	4	+1	14
7	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-1	14
8	Watford	9	3	3	3	+1	12
9	Wolves	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	West Ham	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Newcastle	9	2	4	3	-4	10
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	1	6	-5	10
13	Everton	9	2	3	4	-1	9
14	Bournemouth	9	3	0	6	-8	9
15	Brighton	10	2	1	7	-9	7
16	Southampton	10	2	1	7	-11	7
17	Huddersfield	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Burnley	10	1	2	7	-14	5
19	Cardiff	9	0	2	7	-13	2
20	Fulham	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.