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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Real Madrid

S S U S T

4–1

Full-time

Valencia

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

This season — La Liga · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 54%

70%

37%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

60%

63%

Both score Ø 67%

60%

74%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%

23 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 7

8 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 8

4 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 24

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Valencia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	20	14	4	2	+24	46
2	Sevilla	19	12	5	2	+17	41
3	Betis	19	10	3	6	+9	33
4	Sociedad	20	9	6	5	+1	33
5	Ath Madrid	19	9	5	5	+9	32
6	Barcelona	20	8	8	4	+8	32
7	Vallecano	19	9	3	7	+6	30
8	Villarreal	19	7	7	5	+11	28
9	Valencia	19	7	7	5	+3	28
10	Ath Bilbao	20	6	9	5	+3	27
11	Espanol	19	7	5	7	+0	26
12	Granada	20	5	9	6	-3	24
13	Celta	20	6	5	9	-1	23
14	Osasuna	19	5	7	7	-7	22
15	Mallorca	20	4	8	8	-13	20
16	Getafe	19	4	6	9	-7	18
17	Elche	19	3	7	9	-9	16
18	Alaves	19	4	4	11	-14	16
19	Cadiz	19	2	8	9	-17	14
20	Levante	20	1	8	11	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	9	8	1	0	+16	25
2	Sevilla	9	7	2	0	+13	23
3	Real Madrid	9	6	3	0	+13	21
4	Villarreal	10	6	2	2	+13	20
5	Barcelona	10	6	2	2	+8	20
6	Espanol	9	6	2	1	+7	20
7	Ath Madrid	9	5	3	1	+8	18
8	Sociedad	10	5	3	2	+1	18
9	Betis	10	5	2	3	+7	17
10	Valencia	10	4	4	2	+5	16
11	Granada	10	4	3	3	+1	15
12	Ath Bilbao	10	4	2	4	+1	14
13	Getafe	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Mallorca	10	2	6	2	+0	12
15	Elche	9	2	5	2	-1	11
16	Alaves	10	3	2	5	-5	11
17	Levante	10	1	6	3	-4	9
18	Celta	10	2	2	6	-4	8
19	Osasuna	10	1	5	4	-8	8
20	Cadiz	10	0	5	5	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Sevilla	10	5	3	2	+4	18
3	Betis	9	5	1	3	+2	16
4	Celta	10	4	3	3	+3	15
5	Sociedad	10	4	3	3	+0	15
6	Ath Madrid	10	4	2	4	+1	14
7	Osasuna	9	4	2	3	+1	14
8	Ath Bilbao	10	2	7	1	+2	13
9	Barcelona	10	2	6	2	+0	12
10	Valencia	9	3	3	3	-2	12
11	Granada	10	1	6	3	-4	9
12	Cadiz	9	2	3	4	-8	9
13	Villarreal	9	1	5	3	-2	8
14	Mallorca	10	2	2	6	-13	8
15	Espanol	10	1	3	6	-7	6
16	Elche	10	1	2	7	-8	5
17	Alaves	9	1	2	6	-9	5
18	Vallecano	10	1	2	7	-10	5
19	Getafe	9	0	4	5	-8	4
20	Levante	10	0	2	8	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.