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Bundesliga

Referee: D Aytekin

RB Leipzig

T T S U T

4–1

Full-time

Mainz

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

35%

41%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

59%

47%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

69% Possession 31%

16 Shots 2

8 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 1

5 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match RB Leipzig 10. · Mainz 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	18	14	1	3	+39	43
2	Dortmund	17	11	1	5	+15	34
3	Freiburg	17	8	5	4	+12	29
4	Leverkusen	17	8	4	5	+12	28
5	Hoffenheim	17	8	4	5	+9	28
6	Ein Frankfurt	17	7	6	4	+3	27
7	Union Berlin	17	7	6	4	+2	27
8	FC Koln	17	6	7	4	+0	25
9	Mainz	17	7	3	7	+8	24
10	RB Leipzig	17	6	4	7	+8	22
11	M'gladbach	18	6	4	8	-9	22
12	Hertha	17	6	3	8	-15	21
13	Bochum	17	6	2	9	-10	20
14	Wolfsburg	17	6	2	9	-12	20
15	Augsburg	17	4	6	7	-9	18
16	Stuttgart	17	4	5	8	-9	17
17	Bielefeld	17	3	7	7	-8	16
18	Greuther Furth	17	1	2	14	-36	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	0	2	+22	24
2	Dortmund	9	8	0	1	+14	24
3	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+13	18
4	Mainz	9	5	3	1	+13	18
5	FC Koln	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Union Berlin	9	5	3	1	+4	18
7	Hoffenheim	8	5	2	1	+10	17
8	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+4	14
9	Bochum	8	4	2	2	+4	14
10	Hertha	8	4	2	2	+3	14
11	M'gladbach	8	4	2	2	+1	14
12	Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	+5	13
13	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	4	1	+4	13
14	Stuttgart	9	3	2	4	-2	11
15	Augsburg	8	3	2	3	-3	11
16	Wolfsburg	9	3	1	5	-6	10
17	Bielefeld	9	1	5	3	-5	8
18	Greuther Furth	8	1	2	5	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+17	19
2	Freiburg	9	4	3	2	+8	15
3	Leverkusen	9	4	3	2	+7	15
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	-1	14
5	Hoffenheim	9	3	2	4	-1	11
6	Dortmund	8	3	1	4	+1	10
7	Wolfsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	10
8	Union Berlin	8	2	3	3	-2	9
9	Bielefeld	8	2	2	4	-3	8
10	M'gladbach	10	2	2	6	-10	8
11	Augsburg	9	1	4	4	-6	7
12	FC Koln	8	1	4	3	-7	7
13	Hertha	9	2	1	6	-18	7
14	Mainz	8	2	0	6	-5	6
15	Stuttgart	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	Bochum	9	2	0	7	-14	6
17	RB Leipzig	8	0	4	4	-5	4
18	Greuther Furth	9	0	0	9	-28	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.