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La Liga

Referee: José María Sánchez Martínez

Sevilla

U S T T T

0–1

Full-time

Celta

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

67%

28%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,27 xG 1,63

59% Possession 41%

7 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sevilla 14. · Celta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	19	16	1	2	+33	+18.5	49
2	Real Madrid	19	14	3	2	+24	+23.7	45
3	Villarreal	18	13	2	3	+20	+8.5	41
4	Ath Madrid	19	11	5	3	+17	+8.1	38
5	Espanol	19	10	4	5	+3	+5.9	34
6	Betis	19	7	8	4	+6	+5.9	29
7	Celta	18	6	8	4	+4	-2.1	26
8	Ath Bilbao	19	7	3	9	-8	+6.5	24
9	Elche	19	5	8	6	+1	-6.8	23
10	Vallecano	19	5	7	7	-6	+2.4	22
11	Sociedad	19	5	6	8	-3	+1.4	21
12	Getafe	19	6	3	10	-10	-7.0	21
13	Girona	19	5	6	8	-16	-12.1	21
14	Sevilla	18	6	2	10	-5	-9.9	20
15	Osasuna	19	5	4	10	-4	-3.5	19
16	Alaves	19	5	4	10	-8	-2.1	19
17	Mallorca	19	4	6	9	-7	-12.3	18
18	Valencia	19	3	8	8	-13	-2.6	17
19	Levante	18	3	5	10	-9	-7.0	14
20	Oviedo	19	2	7	10	-19	-15.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	+23	+14.6	27
2	Villarreal	10	8	1	1	+16	+6.8	25
3	Ath Madrid	9	8	1	0	+15	+11.9	25
4	Real Madrid	9	8	0	1	+15	+13.5	24
5	Elche	10	5	4	1	+9	+2.7	19
6	Espanol	10	6	1	3	+1	+3.0	19
7	Osasuna	9	5	2	2	+6	+2.1	17
8	Betis	9	5	1	3	+7	+5.7	16
9	Ath Bilbao	10	5	1	4	-1	+7.2	16
10	Alaves	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.5	15
11	Valencia	10	3	5	2	+3	+7.5	14
12	Mallorca	9	3	4	2	+0	-1.5	13
13	Vallecano	9	2	6	1	+1	+5.9	12
14	Girona	10	3	3	4	-8	-7.6	12
15	Celta	10	2	5	3	+0	+0.6	11
16	Getafe	9	3	2	4	+0	-3.9	11
17	Sociedad	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.7	11
18	Sevilla	9	3	1	5	-1	-0.1	10
19	Oviedo	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.2	8
20	Levante	8	0	3	5	-10	-6.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	7	1	2	+10	+3.9	22
2	Real Madrid	10	6	3	1	+9	+10.2	21
3	Villarreal	8	5	1	2	+4	+1.7	16
4	Celta	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.8	15
5	Espanol	9	4	3	2	+2	+2.9	15
6	Ath Madrid	10	3	4	3	+2	-3.8	13
7	Betis	10	2	7	1	-1	+0.2	13
8	Levante	10	3	2	5	+1	-0.1	11
9	Sociedad	10	2	4	4	-2	-1.2	10
10	Sevilla	9	3	1	5	-4	-9.8	10
11	Vallecano	10	3	1	6	-7	-3.4	10
12	Getafe	10	3	1	6	-10	-3.1	10
13	Girona	9	2	3	4	-8	-4.5	9
14	Ath Bilbao	9	2	2	5	-7	-0.8	8
15	Mallorca	10	1	2	7	-7	-10.8	5
16	Oviedo	9	1	2	6	-11	-6.4	5
17	Elche	9	0	4	5	-8	-9.5	4
18	Alaves	9	1	1	7	-10	-3.7	4
19	Valencia	9	0	3	6	-16	-10.0	3
20	Osasuna	10	0	2	8	-10	-5.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.