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La Liga
Referee: Pablo González
Celta
S T T S T
3–2
Full-time
Sevilla
T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Sevilla
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,2
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,7
2,3
Scored
1,8
0,8
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches
Win Ø 32%
38%
26%
Points per game
1,4
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
62%
38%
Both score Ø 62%
68%
56%
Average goals
3,1
2,4
Scored
1,5
1,1
Conceded
1,5
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,71 xG 2,31
50% Possession 50%
8 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 10
1 Blocked shots 4
8 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 6
1 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 16
0 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Celta 8. · Sevilla 15.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 34 25 4 5 +58 +44.7 79
2 Real Madrid 34 23 6 5 +36 +27.8 75
3 Ath Madrid 34 19 10 5 +29 +24.3 67
4 Ath Bilbao 34 16 13 5 +24 +15.5 61
5 Villarreal 34 16 10 8 +13 +18.3 58
6 Betis 34 16 9 9 +10 +10.6 57
7 Vallecano 35 12 11 12 -5 -3.7 47
8 Celta 34 13 7 14 +0 +11.8 46
9 Valencia 35 11 12 12 -8 -6.3 45
10 Osasuna 34 10 14 10 -8 -9.7 44
11 Mallorca 34 12 8 14 -8 -3.1 44
12 Sociedad 34 12 7 15 -5 +1.4 43
13 Getafe 35 10 9 16 -3 -7.6 39
14 Espanol 34 10 9 15 -8 -21.6 39
15 Sevilla 34 9 11 14 -9 -6.4 38
16 Girona 34 10 8 16 -11 -3.4 38
17 Alaves 34 8 11 15 -11 -4.0 35
18 Las Palmas 35 8 8 19 -17 -29.3 32
19 Leganes 34 6 13 15 -19 -26.7 31
20 Valladolid 34 4 4 26 -58 -32.7 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Celta Sevilla
1–0 I. Moriba
W. Swedberg
19′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Isaac Romero
↦ L. Badé
Javi Rodríguez 🔁
↦ Iago Aspas
46′
Fran Beltrán 🔁
↦ Damián Rodríguez
46′
Marcos Alonso ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
50′
Marcos Alonso 🟥
51′
53′
N. Gudelj 1–1
53′
🔁 Suso
↦ Adrià Pedrosa
2–1 Óscar Mingueza
Fran Beltrán
65′
67′
🔁 Álvaro García
↦ Peque Fernández
M. Ristić 🔁
↦ W. Swedberg
70′
73′
🟨 Isaac Romero
F. Cervi 🔁
↦ Óscar Mingueza
76′
Borja Iglesias 🔁
↦ Hugo Álvarez
83′
85′
🔁 C. Ejuke
↦ Saúl
Iker Losada 🔁
↦ Pablo Durán
89′
3–1 Borja Iglesias
91′
94′
🟨 Kike Salas
98′
Kike Salas 3–2
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Celta

4-1-4-1
13 Vicente Guaita G
3 Óscar Mingueza D
29 Yoel Lago D
24 Carlos Domínguez D
20 Marcos Alonso D
25 Damián Rodríguez M
18 Pablo Durán M
6 I. Moriba M
19 W. Swedberg M
23 Hugo Álvarez M
10 Iago Aspas F
Bench (12)
32 Javi Rodríguez
8 Fran Beltrán
21 M. Ristić
11 F. Cervi
7 Borja Iglesias
14 Iker Losada
12 Alfon González
5 Sergio Carreira
1 Iván Villar
28 Fer López
34 Miguel Román
4 Hugo Sotelo

Coach: Claudio Giráldez

Sevilla

4-4-2
13 Ø. Nyland G
35 Ramón Martínez D
22 L. Badé D
6 N. Gudelj D
4 Kike Salas D
26 Juanlu Sánchez M
18 L. Agoumé M
17 Saúl M
3 Adrià Pedrosa M
11 D. Lukébakio F
14 Peque Fernández F
Bench (11)
7 Isaac Romero
10 Suso
42 Álvaro García
21 C. Ejuke
28 Manu Bueno
45 Lulo Dasilva
23 Marcão
1 Álvaro Fernández
36 Oso
27 S. Idumbo
31 Alberto Flores

Coach: Joaquín Caparrós

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,83
U
3,66
B
4,34
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,01
U2,5
1,81
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Pablo González · 106 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
29,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.