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La Liga

Referee: J Munuera

Celta

S S T U U

1–2

Full-time

Osasuna

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Osasuna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 34%

36%

32%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

32%

41%

Both score Ø 52%

59%

45%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,16 xG 0,66

57% Possession 43%

18 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 7. · Osasuna 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	22	18	1	3	+37	+28.2	55
2	Real Madrid	22	17	3	2	+29	+28.0	54
3	Ath Madrid	22	13	6	3	+21	+10.5	45
4	Villarreal	21	13	3	5	+16	+6.9	42
5	Betis	22	9	8	5	+8	+6.3	35
6	Espanol	22	10	4	8	-1	+3.2	34
7	Celta	22	8	9	5	+6	-0.2	33
8	Sociedad	22	7	7	8	+0	-0.5	28
9	Osasuna	22	7	5	10	-1	-2.6	26
10	Alaves	22	7	4	11	-7	-2.6	25
11	Ath Bilbao	22	7	4	11	-10	+5.2	25
12	Girona	22	6	7	9	-15	-12.1	25
13	Elche	22	5	9	8	-2	-15.7	24
14	Mallorca	22	6	6	10	-6	-11.2	24
15	Sevilla	22	7	3	12	-8	-11.3	24
16	Getafe	22	6	5	11	-11	-7.0	23
17	Valencia	22	5	8	9	-12	-1.1	23
18	Vallecano	22	5	7	10	-12	+0.0	22
19	Levante	21	4	6	11	-10	-7.6	18
20	Oviedo	22	3	7	12	-22	-16.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	11	10	1	0	+19	+13.9	31
2	Barcelona	10	10	0	0	+26	+16.2	30
3	Real Madrid	11	10	0	1	+18	+16.8	30
4	Villarreal	11	8	1	2	+14	+5.8	25
5	Betis	11	7	1	3	+10	+5.9	22
6	Osasuna	11	6	3	2	+7	+2.6	21
7	Elche	12	5	5	2	+7	-4.2	20
8	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	+4	+0.7	19
9	Espanol	12	6	1	5	-2	+1.6	19
10	Alaves	11	5	3	3	+3	+1.4	18
11	Valencia	11	4	5	2	+4	+8.7	17
12	Sociedad	11	5	2	4	+2	+0.0	17
13	Ath Bilbao	11	5	2	4	-1	+6.5	17
14	Celta	11	3	5	3	+3	+1.4	14
15	Sevilla	11	4	1	6	-1	-1.5	13
16	Girona	11	3	4	4	-8	-7.7	13
17	Getafe	11	3	3	5	-1	-4.0	12
18	Vallecano	10	2	6	2	-1	+5.4	12
19	Oviedo	11	2	5	4	-7	-8.4	11
20	Levante	10	1	4	5	-9	-5.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	8	1	3	+11	+12.0	25
2	Real Madrid	11	7	3	1	+11	+11.2	24
3	Celta	11	5	4	2	+3	-1.6	19
4	Villarreal	10	5	2	3	+2	+1.1	17
5	Espanol	10	4	3	3	+1	+1.7	15
6	Ath Madrid	11	3	5	3	+2	-3.4	14
7	Betis	11	2	7	2	-2	+0.3	13
8	Girona	11	3	3	5	-7	-4.4	12
9	Levante	11	3	2	6	-1	-2.1	11
10	Sociedad	11	2	5	4	-2	-0.5	11
11	Sevilla	11	3	2	6	-7	-9.9	11
12	Getafe	11	3	2	6	-10	-3.0	11
13	Vallecano	12	3	1	8	-11	-5.4	10
14	Ath Bilbao	11	2	2	7	-9	-1.4	8
15	Alaves	11	2	1	8	-10	-4.0	7
16	Valencia	11	1	3	7	-16	-9.7	6
17	Osasuna	11	1	2	8	-8	-5.1	5
18	Mallorca	11	1	2	8	-10	-11.8	5
19	Oviedo	11	1	2	8	-15	-8.0	5
20	Elche	10	0	4	6	-9	-11.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.