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La Liga

Referee: M Sesma

Vallecano

U S S T T

1–3

Full-time

Osasuna

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Osasuna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 28%

25%

30%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

35%

Both score Ø 38%

35%

40%

Average goals

2,1

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,77 xG 1,22

67% Possession 33%

11 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 13. · Osasuna 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	20	16	1	3	+32	+21.2	49
2	Real Madrid	20	15	3	2	+26	+25.8	48
3	Villarreal	19	13	2	4	+18	+8.3	41
4	Ath Madrid	20	12	5	3	+18	+9.0	41
5	Espanol	20	10	4	6	+1	+5.0	34
6	Betis	20	8	8	4	+8	+6.2	32
7	Celta	20	8	8	4	+8	-0.0	32
8	Elche	21	5	9	7	+0	-10.2	24
9	Sociedad	20	6	6	8	-2	-1.2	24
10	Ath Bilbao	20	7	3	10	-9	+5.8	24
11	Girona	20	6	6	8	-14	-11.3	24
12	Osasuna	20	6	4	10	-3	-3.5	22
13	Vallecano	20	5	7	8	-9	+1.7	22
14	Sevilla	20	6	3	11	-6	-9.8	21
15	Mallorca	20	5	6	9	-6	-11.6	21
16	Getafe	20	6	3	11	-11	-7.3	21
17	Valencia	20	4	8	8	-12	-2.3	20
18	Alaves	20	5	4	11	-9	-3.0	19
19	Levante	20	4	5	11	-10	-7.1	17
20	Oviedo	20	2	7	11	-20	-15.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	10	9	1	0	+16	+12.8	28
2	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	+23	+14.6	27
3	Real Madrid	10	9	0	1	+17	+15.6	27
4	Villarreal	10	8	1	1	+16	+6.8	25
5	Elche	11	5	5	1	+9	+1.2	20
6	Osasuna	10	6	2	2	+7	+2.1	20
7	Betis	10	6	1	3	+9	+5.9	19
8	Espanol	11	6	1	4	-1	+2.1	19
9	Mallorca	10	4	4	2	+1	-0.8	16
10	Ath Bilbao	10	5	1	4	-1	+7.2	16
11	Alaves	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.5	15
12	Celta	11	3	5	3	+3	+1.4	14
13	Valencia	10	3	5	2	+3	+7.5	14
14	Sociedad	10	4	2	4	+0	-0.0	14
15	Vallecano	9	2	6	1	+1	+5.9	12
16	Girona	10	3	3	4	-8	-7.6	12
17	Getafe	10	3	2	5	-1	-4.2	11
18	Sevilla	10	3	1	6	-2	-1.4	10
19	Oviedo	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.2	8
20	Levante	9	1	3	5	-9	-4.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	7	1	3	+9	+6.6	22
2	Real Madrid	10	6	3	1	+9	+10.2	21
3	Celta	9	5	3	1	+5	-1.4	18
4	Villarreal	9	5	1	3	+2	+1.5	16
5	Espanol	9	4	3	2	+2	+2.9	15
6	Ath Madrid	10	3	4	3	+2	-3.8	13
7	Betis	10	2	7	1	-1	+0.2	13
8	Girona	10	3	3	4	-6	-3.7	12
9	Levante	11	3	2	6	-1	-2.1	11
10	Sevilla	10	3	2	5	-4	-8.4	11
11	Sociedad	10	2	4	4	-2	-1.2	10
12	Vallecano	11	3	1	7	-10	-4.2	10
13	Getafe	10	3	1	6	-10	-3.1	10
14	Ath Bilbao	10	2	2	6	-8	-1.4	8
15	Valencia	10	1	3	6	-15	-9.7	6
16	Mallorca	10	1	2	7	-7	-10.8	5
17	Oviedo	10	1	2	7	-12	-6.4	5
18	Elche	10	0	4	6	-9	-11.5	4
19	Alaves	10	1	1	8	-11	-4.6	4
20	Osasuna	10	0	2	8	-10	-5.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.