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Premier League

Referee: T Harrington

Burnley

T S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Luton

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 18%

15%

21%

Points per game

0,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

55%

68%

Both score Ø 62%

50%

74%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,10 xG 0,95

39% Possession 61%

13 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

2 Corners 8

1 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 19. · Luton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	20	13	6	1	+25	+22.1	45
2	Aston Villa	20	13	3	4	+16	+10.8	42
3	Man City	19	12	4	3	+24	+19.5	40
4	Arsenal	20	12	4	4	+17	+20.5	40
5	Tottenham	20	12	3	5	+13	-0.2	39
6	West Ham	20	10	4	6	+3	-7.8	34
7	Brighton	20	8	7	5	+5	+5.5	31
8	Man United	20	10	1	9	-5	-3.7	31
9	Newcastle	20	9	2	9	+10	+5.8	29
10	Chelsea	20	8	4	8	+3	+10.6	28
11	Wolves	20	8	4	8	-1	-6.2	28
12	Everton	20	8	2	10	-4	+2.3	26
13	Bournemouth	19	7	4	8	-7	-4.2	25
14	Fulham	20	7	3	10	-7	-10.3	24
15	Crystal Palace	20	5	6	9	-7	-4.0	21
16	Nott'm Forest	20	5	5	10	-11	-6.9	20
17	Brentford	19	5	4	10	-5	+8.3	19
18	Luton	19	4	3	12	-14	-20.0	15
19	Burnley	20	3	2	15	-21	-18.0	11
20	Sheffield United	20	2	3	15	-34	-23.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	10	9	1	0	+21	+12.3	28
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+18	+19.8	26
3	Newcastle	10	8	0	2	+16	+13.9	24
4	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.6	23
5	Man City	9	6	3	0	+15	+7.5	21
6	Tottenham	10	7	0	3	+7	+1.9	21
7	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+8	+6.2	19
8	Fulham	10	6	0	4	+7	+3.2	18
9	West Ham	10	5	3	2	+7	-4.0	18
10	Wolves	10	5	3	2	+2	-1.6	18
11	Man United	10	6	0	4	-3	+2.1	18
12	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+3	+9.1	15
13	Brentford	10	3	3	4	-1	+4.7	12
14	Nott'm Forest	10	3	3	4	-1	-0.1	12
15	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.3	12
16	Everton	10	3	1	6	-1	+5.5	10
17	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-3	-1.1	9
18	Luton	10	2	2	6	-4	-3.7	8
19	Sheffield United	10	2	1	7	-14	-9.3	7
20	Burnley	10	1	0	9	-14	-5.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	10	6	1	3	+9	+12.0	19
2	Liverpool	10	5	4	1	+7	+2.3	19
3	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+6	-2.1	18
4	Arsenal	10	5	2	3	+5	+6.9	17
5	Everton	10	5	1	4	-3	-3.2	16
6	West Ham	10	5	1	4	-4	-3.8	16
7	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	-5	-1.4	14
8	Chelsea	10	4	1	5	+0	+1.4	13
9	Man United	10	4	1	5	-2	-5.8	13
10	Bournemouth	10	4	1	5	-6	-2.9	13
11	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-3	-0.7	12
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-4	-2.9	12
13	Wolves	10	3	1	6	-3	-4.7	10
14	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-7	-12.2	8
15	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-10	-6.8	8
16	Brentford	9	2	1	6	-4	+3.6	7
17	Luton	9	2	1	6	-10	-16.3	7
18	Fulham	10	1	3	6	-14	-13.5	6
19	Newcastle	10	1	2	7	-6	-8.1	5
20	Sheffield United	10	0	2	8	-20	-14.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.