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Bundesliga

Referee: B Brand

Bayern Munich

U T S S S

3–0

Full-time

Hoffenheim

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 62%

80%

44%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 87%

93%

81%

Both score Ø 74%

53%

94%

Average goals

4,3

3,9

Scored

3,3

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,77 xG 1,22

61% Possession 39%

27 Shots 12

12 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 8

11 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Bayern Munich 2. · Hoffenheim 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	16	13	3	0	+34	+18.1	42
2	Bayern Munich	15	12	2	1	+34	+33.5	38
3	Stuttgart	16	11	1	4	+18	+21.2	34
4	RB Leipzig	16	10	3	3	+21	+14.0	33
5	Dortmund	16	7	6	3	+5	+1.3	27
6	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	6	4	+6	-1.9	24
7	Hoffenheim	16	7	3	6	+2	-1.2	24
8	Freiburg	16	7	3	6	-5	+0.2	24
9	Heidenheim	16	6	2	8	-7	-16.3	20
10	Wolfsburg	16	6	1	9	-7	-5.0	19
11	Augsburg	16	4	6	6	-7	-3.4	18
12	M'gladbach	16	4	5	7	-4	-4.5	17
13	Werder Bremen	16	4	4	8	-7	-7.3	16
14	Bochum	16	3	7	6	-15	-7.5	16
15	Union Berlin	15	4	1	10	-14	-4.6	13
16	Mainz	16	1	7	8	-15	-1.4	10
17	FC Koln	16	2	4	10	-18	-18.0	10
18	Darmstadt	16	2	4	10	-21	-17.3	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	9	8	1	0	+23	+16.8	25
2	Stuttgart	9	7	1	1	+19	+18.3	22
3	RB Leipzig	8	6	2	0	+18	+10.5	20
4	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+25	+18.4	19
5	Dortmund	9	5	2	2	+2	+4.4	17
6	Heidenheim	8	5	1	2	+3	-4.4	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.9	15
8	Freiburg	7	4	2	1	+4	+5.7	14
9	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.8	14
10	Wolfsburg	8	4	1	3	+3	-2.2	13
11	Augsburg	8	3	4	1	+2	+0.5	13
12	M'gladbach	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.3	11
13	Bochum	7	2	4	1	+3	+5.8	10
14	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	-1.3	10
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-2	+1.5	8
16	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-4	-6.2	5
17	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.4	5
18	Mainz	7	1	1	5	-7	+1.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+9	+15.2	19
2	Leverkusen	7	5	2	0	+11	+1.3	17
3	Hoffenheim	8	5	1	2	+4	-2.7	16
4	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.5	13
5	Stuttgart	7	4	0	3	-1	+2.9	12
6	Dortmund	7	2	4	1	+3	-3.1	10
7	Freiburg	9	3	1	5	-9	-5.5	10
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	2	3	3	-1	-3.7	9
9	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-5	-4.7	6
10	Mainz	9	0	6	3	-8	-3.3	6
11	Wolfsburg	8	2	0	6	-10	-2.8	6
12	Bochum	9	1	3	5	-18	-13.4	6
13	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-9	-3.9	5
14	FC Koln	9	1	2	6	-14	-11.8	5
15	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-15	-14.8	5
16	Heidenheim	8	1	1	6	-10	-12.0	4
17	Union Berlin	7	1	0	6	-10	-3.3	3
18	Werder Bremen	7	0	2	5	-8	-6.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.