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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Brentford

T U T S T

1–3

Full-time

Man City

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,3

3,5

Scored

1,7

2,8

Conceded

2,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 48%

29%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

71%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,6

Scored

1,5

2,4

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,04 xG 2,09

28% Possession 72%

9 Shots 25

3 Shots on target 15

3 Blocked shots 7

12 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 13

2 Offside 0

2 Free kicks against 4

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 16. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	23	15	6	2	+30	+21.5	51
2	Arsenal	23	15	4	4	+25	+27.4	49
3	Man City	21	14	4	3	+27	+21.5	46
4	Aston Villa	23	14	4	5	+19	+10.4	46
5	Tottenham	23	13	5	5	+14	+0.1	44
6	Man United	23	12	2	9	-1	-3.7	38
7	West Ham	23	10	6	7	+0	-7.2	36
8	Brighton	23	9	8	6	+4	+4.3	35
9	Newcastle	23	10	3	10	+11	+5.3	33
10	Wolves	23	9	5	9	+0	-7.0	32
11	Chelsea	23	9	4	10	-1	+9.3	31
12	Everton	23	8	5	10	-4	+4.3	29
13	Bournemouth	22	7	6	9	-11	-3.8	27
14	Fulham	23	7	5	11	-8	-12.4	26
15	Crystal Palace	23	6	6	11	-14	-7.6	24
16	Brentford	21	6	4	11	-5	+6.8	22
17	Nott'm Forest	23	5	6	12	-13	-8.5	21
18	Luton	22	5	5	12	-10	-17.9	20
19	Burnley	23	3	4	16	-23	-17.9	13
20	Sheffield United	23	2	4	17	-40	-24.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	9	2	0	+21	+22.1	29
2	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+19	+19.6	29
3	Aston Villa	11	9	1	1	+19	+11.1	28
4	Newcastle	12	8	1	3	+15	+12.3	25
5	Man City	10	7	3	0	+17	+7.8	24
6	Tottenham	11	8	0	3	+8	+3.3	24
7	Brighton	12	6	5	1	+11	+7.2	23
8	Man United	12	7	1	4	+0	+1.0	22
9	Fulham	11	6	1	4	+7	+2.8	19
10	West Ham	11	5	4	2	+7	-3.8	19
11	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+2	+10.2	18
12	Wolves	11	5	3	3	+1	-2.7	18
13	Brentford	11	4	3	4	+0	+4.7	15
14	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-5	-0.7	13
15	Everton	12	3	3	6	-1	+7.1	12
16	Nott'm Forest	11	3	3	5	-2	-1.0	12
17	Crystal Palace	11	3	3	5	-2	-0.7	12
18	Luton	11	3	2	6	+0	-1.5	11
19	Sheffield United	12	2	2	8	-19	-9.9	8
20	Burnley	12	1	2	9	-14	-5.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	11	7	1	3	+10	+13.7	22
2	Liverpool	12	6	4	2	+9	-0.7	22
3	Tottenham	12	5	5	2	+6	-3.3	20
4	Arsenal	11	6	2	3	+6	+7.7	20
5	Aston Villa	12	5	3	4	+0	-0.7	18
6	Everton	11	5	2	4	-3	-2.8	17
7	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-7	-3.3	17
8	Man United	11	5	1	5	-1	-4.7	16
9	Wolves	12	4	2	6	-1	-4.3	14
10	Bournemouth	11	4	2	5	-6	-3.1	14
11	Chelsea	11	4	1	6	-3	-0.9	13
12	Brighton	11	3	3	5	-7	-3.0	12
13	Crystal Palace	12	3	3	6	-12	-6.9	12
14	Luton	11	2	3	6	-10	-16.4	9
15	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-11	-7.5	9
16	Newcastle	11	2	2	7	-4	-6.9	8
17	Burnley	11	2	2	7	-9	-12.5	8
18	Brentford	10	2	1	7	-5	+2.1	7
19	Fulham	12	1	4	7	-15	-15.2	7
20	Sheffield United	11	0	2	9	-21	-14.9	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.