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Premier League

Referee: D England

Man City

S S S S U

2–0

Full-time

Brentford

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 52%

78%

26%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

52%

57%

Both score Ø 46%

35%

57%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,4

1,1

Conceded

0,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

76% Possession 24%

15 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 10

7 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Brentford 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	23	18	3	2	+41	57
2	Liverpool	22	14	6	2	+39	48
3	Chelsea	24	13	8	3	+30	47
4	West Ham	24	12	4	8	+11	40
5	Man United	23	11	6	6	+6	39
6	Arsenal	21	11	3	7	+8	36
7	Tottenham	20	11	3	6	+2	36
8	Wolves	21	10	4	7	+3	34
9	Brighton	22	6	12	4	+0	30
10	Leicester	20	7	5	8	-3	26
11	Aston Villa	21	8	2	11	-4	26
12	Southampton	22	5	10	7	-8	25
13	Crystal Palace	22	5	9	8	-3	24
14	Brentford	23	6	5	12	-12	23
15	Leeds	21	5	7	9	-16	22
16	Everton	21	5	4	12	-13	19
17	Newcastle	22	3	9	10	-20	18
18	Norwich	22	4	4	14	-32	16
19	Watford	22	4	3	15	-18	15
20	Burnley	20	1	11	8	-11	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+26	28
2	Liverpool	10	7	3	0	+19	24
3	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
4	Arsenal	11	7	2	2	+10	23
5	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
6	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+5	20
7	Man United	11	6	1	4	+3	19
8	Crystal Palace	12	4	5	3	+6	17
9	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+3	17
10	Southampton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
11	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	+1	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	+0	14
13	Brighton	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Everton	10	4	1	5	-2	13
15	Brentford	12	4	1	7	-3	13
16	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-4	13
17	Newcastle	12	2	6	4	-7	12
18	Burnley	9	1	6	2	+0	9
19	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-13	8
20	Watford	11	2	1	8	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Liverpool	12	7	3	2	+20	24
3	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+13	24
4	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+6	20
5	Man United	12	5	5	2	+3	20
6	Wolves	11	6	2	3	+3	20
7	Brighton	11	3	7	1	+1	16
8	Tottenham	10	4	2	4	-4	14
9	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
10	Aston Villa	11	4	0	7	-5	12
11	Brentford	11	2	4	5	-9	10
12	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
13	Southampton	11	2	3	6	-12	9
14	Leeds	10	2	3	5	-12	9
15	Watford	11	2	2	7	-4	8
16	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-19	8
17	Crystal Palace	10	1	4	5	-9	7
18	Everton	11	1	3	7	-11	6
19	Newcastle	10	1	3	6	-13	6
20	Burnley	11	0	5	6	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.